Developing phosphate interests in the Georgina Basin, Queensland, Australia

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Message: Good News With Bad

Good News With Bad

posted on Mar 17, 2010 12:08AM

I'm pleased by the announcement generally, but was disappointed to read that preparative blurb about not shipping DSO this year (in italics below). I read between the lines here like this..."The partership with Wengfu is all but done, we are going to dilute and have a large influx of new capital, it is no longer necessary for us to rush to market with the DSO at current prices. Oh and by the way, we don't have native title or environmental permitting in place yet anyway" This is echoed in the annual report (second set of italics below).

This might be the best business strategy for the long-term, but the share price is going to get murdered because of it. I'm not saying its the end of the world, but it does give me pause to think about maybe riding this current upswing and selling before the dilution is announced because that coupled with the official announcement that there is not going be any revenue again this year is going to cause a serious correction.

I still think it's great long-term, but I don't want to be caught in limbo for another year when there is money to be made in a savvy trade. Thoughts?

Wengfu’s initial recommendation is that, even though shipping of high grade phosphate rock as mined (DSO) is currently technically and economically feasible, Legend should defer the decision to mine and ship the high grade DSO material, until completion of the feasibility study in Q2, 2010.

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The production rate will ultimately depend on market requirements and future definition of Mineral Reserves from the currently defined non-reserve mineralized material which can meet each product specification. Current knowledge however indicates that a target rate of between 500 ktpa (500,000 metric tonnes per annum) to 1Mtpa (1 million metric tonnes per annum) could be achievable. The price Legend receives for the phosphate rock will ultimately determine any production. Given recent low international prices Legend has also investigated an alternate strategy beginning with value addition products such as phosphoric acid. This alternate strategy is attractive given the suitability of the rock for phosphoric acid manufacture and potential supplies of sulfuric acid in the future. The fact that Legend owns the raw phosphate rock material means value addition to phosphoric acid would achieve greater profit margins and make the project less susceptible to the volatility of the phosphate rock market.

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