Alton's Book Value Revisited
posted on
Feb 14, 2014 03:20PM
Multi-Billion Dollar Agreement Signed With Oman
This is a good time to take another look at the inherent value in Alton's figures, which, in view of the aticipated signing of the DA, could in large part explain the renewed interest in our now favorite stock.
By popular demand (ok, by Bill's demand), I've gone back into the latest quarterly report (June 30, 2013) and gleened the following information:
Omagine Inc. owns 60% of Omagine LLC.As part of the sale of the other 40% to other shareholders, including the Royal Court of Affairs (RCA), which handles the sultan’s personal affairs, new investors to contribute $69.2m into LLC at Financing Date.
Financing Date = Date that legally binding agreement is executed by LLC and any 3rd party investment fund, lender or other person to provide debt financing for 1st phase (or any and all phases) of the project.The 1st phase is to pay for architectural work, etc. and is not expected to be an onerous amount.
Draw Date = The date that LLC first draws on the financing.
New investors also to pay directly to Omagine Inc. a total of $9.0 million to reimburse it for previously expensed Pre-Development costs.Of this, $4.5m to be paid within days of draw date and remaining $4.5m to be paid over next 5 years ($0.9m/year).
Success Fee of $10 million to be paid to Omagine Inc. over 5 years ($2.0m/year).
So, on or about Draw Date, book value goes up by ~ $4.5m + $2.0m = $6.5m.And increases by $2.9m/year for the next 5 years (depending upon how the company books these future revenues … it could hit the balance sheet right away as a receivable).
However, the big kicker is the contribution by the Sultan of 1.0 million square meters of prime real estate to LLC for the project to be developed.This is roughly 245 acres.This land has yet to be valued, however, using prices published today on Agoracom by a fellow shareholder for market values of commercial and residential in the Muscat area (per a local real estate firm), I took the average of the high and low prices for both residential and commercial and averaged those together as it is impossible to know what the split between residential and commercial will be, nor what the prices would be.So averaging all 4 data points, and converting to US$s, it MAY BE that the land could be worth $450 million.Of that, 60% would accrue to Omagine Inc., for $270 million.
Shares outstanding per Agoracom: 14,833,239
Summary of Book Value Increases:
Initial $69m into LLC * 60% = $41.4m … or $2.79/share
Pre-Devlopment Reimbursement to Inc. of $4.5m … or $0.30/share
Success Fee to Inc. of $2.0m … or $0.13/share
Total of above is $3.22/share increase in book value.
Value of land to be contributed to LLC may be around $450m, of which 60% would accrue to Omagine Inc., or $270m.That equates to $18.20/share.
In total, book value should/could rise by approximately $21.40.
None of this contemplates the net present value of future cash inflows from the project.That would add a considerable amount more to the book value.Let alone any potential market multiplier.
Before the grouchy guys jump all over me, this is JUST a mathematical exercise and clearly much depends upon the ultimate value of the land. The other data points are solid. And of course, a certain somebody has to get some signed letters before any of this can happen. And QWERTY .. NO, I am not interested in your bridge, so please don't offer it again!