Re: Crystal Ball
in response to
by
posted on
May 08, 2014 11:52AM
Multi-Billion Dollar Agreement Signed With Oman
You know, I have to ask this. You and Gibby and Honeymooner consistently poo poo higher numbers but you guys NEVER give a reason. You can't base it on past disappointments in getting the DA signed because the assumption behind the higher price is that it is signed. Again, the assumption here is that the DA gets signed. Not talking about when or if. Once it is signed, new facts on the ground and that is my starting point. So please, all of you, don't respond with the usual complaints about this not getting signed.
And you've never criticized the calculations for book value. So please, can you enlighten us as to why you think the mid-teens is pot-inspired? You clearly believe the market will heavily discount the BV. That's fine, but please tell us WHY the market will heavily discount the BV. I personally think the market value will trail the BV, but not by 50%. A big piece is the land. The land has value. The land will be sold in parcels at significant profit for Omagine LLC (and therefore Omagine Inc.). Real estate and economy of Oman is improving. It does not appear to be unreasonable to expect a reasonable amount of demand for these properties given the planned scope of the project.
As for the discount, I have no idea how much the market will discount the BV, but the reason I don't believe it will be 50% or more is because of the above paragraph as well as, to a lesser extent, the cash coming in (close to $70m). Not to mention the expertise of CCC. This is a credible project so the market SHOULD factor that into it's calculations. My guess, discount of maybe 25% or less. To put that into numbers: BV will certainly be at least $20. I don't think a market value of $15 at a minimum would be unreasonable given the above points.
Now, please provide more concrete analysis of your rationale. Thank you.