Thoughts on this weeks events
posted on
Aug 14, 2010 01:39PM
Following is my thought on the evnets of this week. The dissolving of JV with NOT as well as the resulting runup in sp. All just MHO.
I have FT job and unable to follow events daily as some others can. It has been a wild week in a very positive way. I have been posting over the past several weeks trying to raise awareness of the value of BC and the release of imminent 43-101 which will place a value on this assett and help raise sp. Things hardly ever turn out exactly as you expect, and the dissolution of JV is a great example of that. It took me totally by surprise. I think its a win/win for both PRB and NOT. A win for PRB with very much near term potential and a win for NOT with a longer term potential. PRB is now the company at ROF in the spotlight.
I am thinking that the runup Friday directly relates to the fact that PRB now has 100% control of BC. The timetable for everything relating to Black Creek (BC) can now be moved up. PRB no longer has to go to a committee with NOT to make decisions. CLF (or any interested buyer) can now deal with just one party rather than two. PRB has no intention of mining the chromite themselves. CLF does have intentions of building a chromite mine. CLF controls chromite a few km to the NE and also a few km to the SW. BC is on the highest ground in the area. The chromite at BC is very close to surface. It is the second highest grade in the area (so far). This is not rocket science.
The 43-101 is actually now overdue. The published timetable was 6-8 weeks from 6/8/10. Thus, we can expect it at anytime. This will put a value of BC's chrome resource to depth of 200 feet. Keep in mind it is open at depth. Whatever the resource comes out at, you can most probably eventually at least double that because I am convinced that the first drilling that PRB will do, now that they own 100%, will be to do the planned drilling to 400ft to increase the estimated resouce.
I keep going back to what CLF paid for SPQ's share of Big Daddy as a comparable. They essentially ended up paying C125 M for approximately 10.6 million tons of chrome deposit. Of course, you cant compare it apples to apples as there are differences in grade, etc., but it does make a good crude reference for a starting point.
Lets wait and see what the 43-101 puts the BC resource at. Then we can make some more finely tuned comparisions. Perhaps there will even be a premium due to the high gound at BC. I initially used 36 million shares in my calculations. The website lists 45 million shares fully diluted, so keep that in mind too. When 43-101 comes out, I am hoping that the market puts a floor on the stock at a much higher level. SP need to get up there so CLF doesnt get it for peanuts and the 43-101 can help value it so that shareholders wont sell for less than full value.
You never know how things will turn out. But I am not expecting a hostile buyout. I am thinking that PRB wants to sell and CLF want to buy. PRB has other interests going as well with new gold claims, NSR, and other projects they want to pursue. Why not just cut a deal with CLF (or whomever else may be interested) for the claim involving BC only.
I am hoping that a floor for sp will be established once the 43-101 comes out and it will be a lot higher than what we are at now. Then we will hopefully get a premium from that higher level when the actual sale occurs. I'm sure that things wont happen precisely this way as I have learned long ago that things never turn out the way you think. Maybe there will be a spinoff, a direct sale of BC, hostile bid for entire company (I expect this least but you never know.) But I am very optimistic that shareholders will be very happy in the near term with current and upcoming develpments.
Then, of course, PRB has other things going on as well. As others have mentioned, we should be getting gold assays soon as well as news on the NSR. IMHO things are looking good for PRB shareholders in near term. I am optimistec. l stick my neck out and say that I am hoping for a minimum sp of $2.00-$2.50 in 30-60 days.
I have thoughts on loss of JV claim norht of Eagle too, but this is getting too long as is. Overall, PRB getting 100% control of BC is a very positive, unexpected, development for near term price apprcitaion. I wouldnt be surprised at all if there are other positve develpments that we dont know about that may unfold in coming weeks.
Good luck to all.
Profitz