Re: BMO – Probe Mines – Borden Lake Resource Update Neutral to Estimates; Higher-Gra
posted on
Jan 15, 2013 05:43PM
First of all thx for sharing this infomation.
They did use just the indicated ounces. So they didn't consider those 625k ounces at 1,08g/t. Thats alot value not included.
Opex seems to be quit ok. Strip ratio is a bit high, but ok.
Pre-capex at 750 mio its pretty high considering the world class infrastructure (compare it to rainy river). sustaining capital- can't talk about it much.
Using a 10% discount rate is pretty conservative. If u compare it to RR PEA, they used 5 %.
I guess they took 1200 $/ounce at a basis to calculate the NAV?
To sum it up, considering the inferred ounces, using lower capex (compareable to similar projects), using a 5% discount rate (such as RR did) increases the NAP significantly.
The DCF uses lots of sensitive paramaters which have high impact on the NAP. By changing those parameters in a certain way u get quit different results.
I'm gonna do some calculation which shows the impacts of changing parameters.
Paschi