Re: Buy Out or Hostile Takeover?
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 21, 2011 12:41PM
Keep in mind, the opinions on this site are for the most part speculation and are not necessarily the opinions of the company WITHOUT PREJUDICE
IMO,the industry is changing in respect to buyouts and there really is no status quo anymore. The industry has learned that the longer they leave these juniors prove up resource, the higher they will proportionately have to pay if they want that resource. Barrick performed this early strategy on Arequipa, they saw the signs early and didn,t intend to allow Arequipa to prove up resource, BECAUSE they knew it was there from just looking at the EARLY results. If Arequipa would have been allowed to prove up their resource for lets say another year, the market would have pushed the sp to higher levels that Barrick knew it would have to pay if they WAITED.
Barrick knew how rich Arequipa,s resource was, I have shown this before a couple times here in posts. Arequipa had proven up an 8 g/t resource AFTER they were in play. Arequipa knew they had a higher grade resource and was frantically trying to show the market before the offer deadline came. Even though Arequipa had excepted Barricks offer in the end, it was interesting to hear Barrick boast after it was mined, that it was a miners dream and averaged a whopping 24g/t, three times higher than what was published that Barrick was buying at the time.
This is a coiled spring, with I would image maybe 4 buying interests watching us closely, wondering WHO will make the first move. One drill result may be all it takes to start the bidding OR the interests risk having to pay a much higher price the longer it leaves us prove up resource. Also, the pressure of the competition if one interest decides to move early. Its possible right now, that 4 interests could have done all their own CALCULATIONS and know that if they want this, they have to play their cards right. We have constantly done the calculations here ourselves, and we are not dum, you dont have to be very bright to see the potential here.
So, things are changing in respect to how juniors are bought out by the big fish. We have seen evidence of that several times in the last 6 months. Where some buyouts were based on $200 per ounce gold in the ground, others were based on $800 or $900 per ounce gold in the ground. IMO, there will be a bidding war over the Tesoro, taking all aspects into consideration. How much we get bought out for, I dont know, but I do know that our calculations suggest a much higher price than what we are at now.