A few thoughts on where my focus is at.
posted on
Dec 05, 2011 02:05PM
Keep in mind, the opinions on this site are for the most part speculation and are not necessarily the opinions of the company WITHOUT PREJUDICE
Some are expressing concern that the bottom might fall out if we do not get the results many hope... or if we don't get a buyout offer quickly. Here are my thoughts on the matter.
I feel this sentiment comes from a combination of impatience, the continued void from lack of additional material information and the appearance of volatility and instability of the SP. This is all a very reasonable and understandable reaction to the current state.
...Here is how I see things and what I am focused on.
While I agree with the majority, that the maximum value for our investment will eventually come in the form of a buyout...because (as has be alluded to by many) it could happen after a few holes or it could take years, I focus on what is more predictable...and how those predictable steps will affect SP in the short/mid term leading up to a future buyout whether it be in a month, 2 years or ...whenever.
Let's look at some of the predictable steps as I see them.
1. Assay results from the cores currently being assayed in the lab from the Shallow Drill program.
This step is the beginning of critical material information. While we do not know what it will prove in terms of resource... it will start painting the true picture and will be the next big step (arguably the biggest to date) in proving up the Tesoro. This will create some SP stability and remove some axiety caused by the unknown. I think any material information, as long as it points towards a future resource that can be profitably mined will increase SP. Even if in the short term the SP stabilizes at say $2.80...that will renew patience in many shareholders as they will be in the black and they are positive steps forward.
2. The Shallow drill already arranged to stay on site after initial drill program...as well as the Deep Drill en route to complete deep drill targets.
This step will continue to prove up the actual resources to a comprehensive level. This may be stating the obvious but this will determine the true value of the Tesoro.
A less than obvious note on this that I feel is critical. Should the initial assays be mediocre which can happen due to sample size...even to what might turn out to be the "world class deposit" many expect. Due to recent moves by the company... we are in a cash rich position which will allow us to continue additional drilling and proving from a position of strength.
3. Inevitable AMEX Listing
While some dominoes may need to fall before this happens it seemed very clear from my conversations with management at the AGM that it will happen. I feel this will further create stability and will also provide exposure. I'm not sure how much of an upward affect on SP it will have but I do think it will support it.
While there are other things that will drive things...I do think by the above three steps playing out...we will see rock solid stability materialize in our investment...which when waiting for the full resource being proven up and the max value buyout offer is the most important thing of all.
Just one man's opinion
S.