Re: Why Market Reacting Negatively /Q1 ernings
in response to
by
posted on
May 11, 2008 02:12PM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
The big day is tuesday ,any new rumours to talk about or maybe some unexpected surprises /diggersam
In my opinion we should expect two "unexpected surprises" in Q1/2008 to Q1/2007 comparison.
1. Due to Q1/2008 very disappointed results from PDP, CLL will not be able to report much of the Petrolifera ernings.
In Q1/2007 CLL reported 3.9M related to PDP ernings. This will be offset by POD1 cash flow of about $4 to 4.5M.
2. A lot of NG (natural gas) producers are reporting Q1 hedge loses. Everybody was cought by unexpected jump in the NG prices. I do not have exact numbers but LUKE hedges were in the $7 to $8 per GJ range. March average in Alberta was well above $8. (May average- $CND 9.3).
This would create paper loses which have to be reported in the Q1 ernings . These loses will be much bigger in Q2/2008.
I posted previously before Q4 CLL report about dramatically low refining margins. The same applies to Q1/2008 especially if you compere to Q1/2007 which were about 70% higher.
Just the reminder that this is all about ernings not the cash flow. Cash flow should be OK.
Unfortunately majority of posters here (except one or two) are obsessed with the ernings and ignoring the cash flow numbers. I am certin they will be disappointed with the Q1 report .