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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Why Market Reacting Negatively /Q1 ernings

Hi sharky.

Thanks for the reply. You pointed out to the bitumen price and related cash flow in the next coming Q's.

Encana in Q1/2008 financials sold their Bitumen from from Forster Creek for $59.57/bbl (average weighted price) . Netbacks at $40/bbl.

Netbacks are revenues end expenses related to operational cost and transportation . Cash flow in general is lower then netbacks. It will be save to assume the CLL netback at $35 to $40 per bbl.

Q1 POD1 csh flow 5M

Q2 POD1 cash flow at average 7000bbl/d $25M

Q3 POD1 cash flow at average 8000bbl/d $29M

Q4 POD1 cash flow at average 9000bbl/d $32M

Total POD1 cash flow in 2008 $90M or $0.42 per CLL share.

If you apply 8 x cash flow multiples the you will get about $3.5 per CLL share for bitumen production in 2008 and $5.3 in 2009 . Adding valu to conventional production and refinery is very difficult due to so call "integration approach" which is very fuzzy.

IMO additional $1.5 to $2 would be appropriate. This will give as the price range of :

$5 to $5.5 in 2008 and $6.8 to $7.3 in 2009.





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