Hi sharky.
Thanks for the reply. You pointed out to the bitumen price and related cash flow in the next coming Q's.
Encana in Q1/2008 financials sold their Bitumen from from Forster Creek for $59.57/bbl (average weighted price) . Netbacks at $40/bbl.
Netbacks are revenues end expenses related to operational cost and transportation . Cash flow in general is lower then netbacks. It will be save to assume the CLL netback at $35 to $40 per bbl.
Q1 POD1 csh flow 5M
Q2 POD1 cash flow at average 7000bbl/d $25M
Q3 POD1 cash flow at average 8000bbl/d $29M
Q4 POD1 cash flow at average 9000bbl/d $32M
Total POD1 cash flow in 2008 $90M or $0.42 per CLL share.
If you apply 8 x cash flow multiples the you will get about $3.5 per CLL share for bitumen production in 2008 and $5.3 in 2009 . Adding valu to conventional production and refinery is very difficult due to so call "integration approach" which is very fuzzy.
IMO additional $1.5 to $2 would be appropriate. This will give as the price range of :
$5 to $5.5 in 2008 and $6.8 to $7.3 in 2009.