Would someone please explain to me what everyone on this board means by the term 'manipulation'.

...Let's look at Metacomet's post piece by piece and ask ourselves if this concept of manipulation truly exists.

Point 1:"There really is no good explanation for the current market cap given the proven resouces and assets and the certainty, given the land package, that the surface has, literally, barely been scratched. ...laughable valuations given to CLL's cohorts. Often with no cretified reserves at all."

As has been said by many, it is tough to put a proper valuation on connacher as a producer as it is an integrated. If your looking at our reserves, I agree that we are valued at well over $5 per share, as has been shown in the company presentations. This number is also due to significantly increase within the next month or so. So why aren't we there? Some say manipulation, but that is nieve.

Look at it this way: The MM's look at cll and notice the nice reserve number. They also take note of the incredible debt load and lack of significant cash flow at this point (pod 1 basically covers the interest of the loan), and ask themselves if pod 2 were to fail, what would the company look like then? The company could hardly afford to pay interest on a loan for money they spent on something that doesn't even work. (I know some of you are thinking that Dick wouldn't fail... Algar will work, but this is not a given. I've taken a large position hoping that it will but reality is, SAGD is still considered to be a risky business among bankers because of cases like Husky or Total). Most comapnies, or cll's 'cohorts' that are valuated on reserves are raw exploration plays (Synenco was considered as such in its recent buyout... all they had was land). If connacher were to fail with pod 2, however, a potential buyer would not just be buying land and reserves. They would be paying 1+ billion for a couple hundred million proven barrels in the ground and 700 Million debt with a pod that covers the interest. So really one would be approaching a buyout price of 2 billon (because of the loan outstanding)... sound like a deal? No. Especially when Synenco is up for 500 million. That is why Connacher cannot be considered an exploration play, and is cannot be valuated heavily on reserves.

Where the reserves do play in can be considered a part of the multiple or a pre-CF multiple base. Jurek and others have shown that CF could be as high as .80$ for the year. Applying a 5x cashflow that puts us at $4 per share. Factor significant land holdings and growth and a 20% premium to the 5x cashflow (so $4.80) sounds reasonable... for now anyways. As these proven reserves begin to get exploited they will turn into cashflow, which is when the SP will truly expand. Dont believe me? Look at what happened after last year's reserve update. look at companies on the tsx that have nothing but reserves and no cash to exploit tham. Thier only hope is a buyout, and even they will not trade at reserve value as the buyout price would not exceed the reserve price by much.