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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Price of Bitumen? (Sharky and Brian)

Jan 10, 2009 09:12AM

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cop
Jan 11, 2009 03:09AM

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Jan 11, 2009 11:26PM

Hi LYnn

TNX for explication.Somewhat the same like we have here on tax approach.Governments are all the same.Like to put the money where it's easy to get but they forget that companies are not so pleased with that and put a demper on further investments.

Cause I'm a fast car lover I just saw a "top gear " program on tv.Very popular sports car program from the UK.Now they did a challenge on the US Bonneville salt track.

They started in San Frisco with a Corvette,a Dodge Challenger and a Cadillac Sedan and drove via Reno to there.When I saw the roads up there with almost no traffic and very nice views etc..I became jellious I would like once to drive with my sportscar in such an envirioment.Must be super.I understand why most of you love your big engine cars.If I could have the luck to come over I rent me a Corvette .It's nice living here but for driving no fun at all .

Oil down again today.Also Q figures coming in and that will probably not support the trend.Lowered my first bid at .68 to .63 to by back .

Found this comment somewhat interesting.Not a bad view to me.

Oil is a spec play, always has been, always will be. Now to address your points one by one and they are good points for the most part.

The move into Gaza did fire up the price of oil but again, it was purely playing on fears of investors. However, when you look at it, how much oil does Isreal and Gaza produce on a daily basis? With the easy answer being "not much" the move upward was just fear mongering on behalf of traders but they could not sustain the upward price movement due to stronger underlying weak fundamentals. Yes, there have been were, and always will be spikes both up and down but, the underlying fundamentals in a slowing economy will hold oil prices in check. The past cold snaps did have a positive impact on oil pricing but, it was coupled with increasing demand, lower production, resulting in the price spikes due to inclement weather simply adding more fuel to the fire. The long term forecast for colder weather would have to be severe to have much impact on longer term pricing-short term yes, longer term, no. Just as the run up in oil prices over the summer was based largely upon stupidity and new players coming to the table that did not, nor do not, belong there. In other words, oil is being traded amongst players who were absent from the table even a few years ago-speculators rather than real traders. It is just so much paper rather than a commodity and when the paper itself becomes the commodity, then we will see volatility and prive moves both up and down that are not sustainable. The bottom line for pricing is demand, increased demand going forward, lack of production and so on. For now, demand is ebbing as the world economies come to grips with a devastating cash flow crunch and credit which is no longer there. The sub -prime fiasco has affected all levels of industry and finance-from major corporations right down to the guy on the street. The bottom line-the demand for credit far exceeded the borrowers ability to repay loans.

If you look at CLL as an example, many here will talk about the $300 million in cash. Fine. But, if I walk into a bank and borrow $10K, I can stuff it in my wallet and flash my cash about and leave the impression of being affluent-but it is still borrowed and every day I have it, it costs me. CLL is somewhat vulnerable, as are many because the major $600 Million USD offering was unsecured, leaving the company with no choice but to pay a now extortionary rate of interest on it. If CLL c ould (and they cannot because current market conditions will not allow any lender to assume that level of risk, particulary in a falling commodity price market as we now have) they could redeem the $600 MIllion USD by borrowing at a lower rate, pay offf the debt and interest charges but no company is going to be able to take out that amount of debt right now, particulary if it is unsecurted. All of CLL' assets are spoken for and with the reduced production, it puts them in a negative repayment environment-in other words they have to pay off the interest with borrowed funds instead of production because their production levels do not meet the loan repayment amounts as well as maintaining other cost payments such as salaries, materials, maintenance and so on. But this is not unique to CLL but to even some major players. But, when you have a capital cost project greater than your current market cap, and a debt to share price ratio they currently have, it makes for a finicky investment climate.

It is going to be some time before we see a return on our investment at levels where many invested. The ones who will do better are the late to the party investors who came in after the price hit 52 week lows, especially as pressure continues to mount and some investors capitulate. This is a fine kettle of fish for many.


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