Re: Oil Sands Only estimate 2010 using 9000 bbl/d from GD- Spiderman and Jurek
posted on
Dec 22, 2009 09:57PM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Just very roughly speaking here. Conventional Oil and MRC should easily cover G&A and other non-financing expenses, with some money left over. Interest is about $90M give or take a million or 2. GD at 9000 bbl/d should/will be able to cover interest with very little to spare, but it should/will cover it.
If Algar at least does what GD did then cash flow will be very good, if it struggles then cash will be needed to fix whatever problems they are, (that is a big if though on the problem side of it).
The debentures will be converted, because the SP will be above the conversion price by the time it is needed. This will lower the debt the company has and increase equity, which will make it easier to attain more debt for expansions beyond GD and Algar. Chances are this new financing will encompass part of the 1st and or 2nd lien debts as well without further share dilution or selling of any assets.
I used a straight 9000 bbl/d for GD at $75 WTI for every bbl over 2500 that is not hedged. I believe it may be between $80-85.
Just my thoughts any thanks for the feedback.
I wish everybody, especially the boys putting up Algar, a Safe and Happy Holidays