Dont think we will see oil hit $40 anytime soon, nor do I think we will hit $200 anytime soon. The markets usually recover 6 months ahead of a normal recession, the markets started to recover last March, however this is far from a normal recession. The real recovery will be slow and not start to happen until jobs are gained, however the pace of job losses has been trending the right way and should start seeing net gains shortly. Do not expect the normal rapid recovery, this will be slow.