Hi Terry

There are some good thoughts to read on the other board.Q3 figures now gives us some good outlook if oil prices don't slip to much or even go up from here again.

There was a little increase in output and for next Q to come that could even be higher because the wells turned to production were done in last 2 weeks.So dezspite il has dropped from past Q the higher output could result in higher cash flow.They decreasd their loss per share too.

I think we could go to 0.32 again but I'm not sure we can take it out .That could be something for next Q I suppose but I'm positive so far .

Here is a summary I found

Very good news indeed.

I've been quiet for some time and I was waiting for this great moment of NIL$ loss/gain per share - quite something during a quarter of payment of interests (Q1 and Q3) and when WCS differential started increasing and is for sure higher than for Q2 (meaning lower WCS price for Q3 Vs Q2).

Very positive to see that despite this WCS price decrease, the netbacks further improved ***significantly*** thanks to the apparently very efficient access to more lucrative dilbit markets by rail that Connacher developped (for which we start seeing the very positive effect now - allowing getting prices closer to WTI), more efficient shipping and handling, DBR reduction, SOR below 3, SAGD+ effects, etc.

The other very positive point is that these results barely include the production increase from the 4 new in-fill wells since only started by end of Q3 (end of September as per Oct. 15 press release).

If we have a look at the numbers:

September average production: 12,100 bbl/d (Oct. 15 PR)

So these 4 new in-fill wells were able to rise production by approx. 2.6% for let's say 2 weeks of production (my best conservative guess for "end of September"). For a full month (using 30.5 days avg), that could translate to at least a 5.7% increase to 12,460 bbl/d, not accounting this is was at the beginning of production ramping up. Note: This is without considering punctual minor production reduction due to rod pump conversion at Algar.

Then there are the 4 new wells, for which the production should begin by mid/end of December according to Oct. 15 PR.


So, the outlook for Q4 and beyond is very positive and it seems they are on the right track for success.


NIL$/share is the first step towards profitability.

Remember the Oct. 15 press release "Results from the SAGD+® process continue to demonstrate the commerciality through increased recovery and lower steam oil ratios."

com·mer·ci·al·i·ty

As a final thought, maybe some giant (and medium, small ones too) Oil Sand companies will need this SAGD+® process that has been developped, improved, tested and owned by Connacher, one of the benefits to be an integrated producer. With SOR below 3, Connacher is probably having better results than most companies. That could bring substantial supplementary revenues (royalties) should this happen. There are certainly good reasons why Connacher have named and registered their process.