Re: For and Against (Verbose)
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 21, 2012 09:51AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
$7 is on the upper end of this and its already bringing us to almost $3 billion bucks. Im sorry I just have a hard time believing its possible to go above here.....even at $5.50 we;re seeing a $2.2 billion dollar buyout for 25%.
While I agree somewhat with your analysis RW I disagree with what you or anyone else may consider "expensive" as it is all relative to what they are going to earn back. Why did TCK pay close to 10B for Fording Coal? Some considered it "expensive" but in the end it was worth it to Teck to secure this "expensive" acquisition as it is now earning them billions. Back in the 90's, Diamond Fields discovered a huge deposit of Nickel in Labrador Nwfd which was bought out by Inco for $4.5B Us or at that time close to $6B Cnd. This discovery was also in a remote location and Nickel was trading at just $2.50/lb compared to over $8/lb today. Some considered this purchase by Inco to be excessively "expensive" yet it is now earning Vale ( who bought out Inco ) billions.
So you may ask yourself, why would TCK pay an "expensive" premium for our deposit compared to other Cu deposits elsewhere in the world? I can think of a couple of reasons. For one, there are very few other deposits that are or will produce Cu at a negative costs. Secondly, our deposit is Massively huge and growing bigger. Third, it is located in a politically stable area of the world ( hugely positive ). Forth, there are no known environmental issues ( massively positive ). Fifth, the NPV is going to show it is going to be justified ( when the BFS comes out its going to surprise alot of people imho ). Taking all these factors into consideration there is just no comparison.
As another example of comparative prices. Why are houses in the West end of Vancouver almost twice the price of houses in the East end? Well neighbourhoods in the West end are nicer and you are closer to some awesome beaches but does that justify their multi- million dollar price tags? I would never pay that much for a house but apparently some do not consider it "expensive" and also have the money to buy them. So what is expensive to us is not to some as factors as location, schools, beaches etc. justify the price in their eyes.
So, imho, looking at all these factors I do not think TCK will consider a price tag of $3B or more unduly expensive to acquire our rare deposit especially as they could be making tens of billions of dollars from it for decades.