Re: Asset sale in progress?
in response to
by
Welcome To the Copper Fox Metals Inc. HUB On AGORACOM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Message: Re: Asset sale in progress?
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I don't even know why MK is bothering to reply but I'll give my two cents on NPV of cashflows.
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Below I'm just playing around with numbers and looking at this purely from Copper Fox perspective.
- I'm assuming 5 years from annoucement to construction.
- Assuming the 7 years payback where CUU receives $75 during that time, then $113 million per year. (this is from the old presenation slides based on FS)
So CUU will get $20 million payment when decision announced. Then 5 year of construciton time then 7 years following wiht 14 years of $113 million.
This is USD as well so we can add another 30% on top.
For the Cash Flow Series
NPV = $490,560,973.34
Cash Flow Stream Detail
Period
Cash Flow
Present Value
0
20,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
1
0.00
0.00
2
0.00
0.00
3
0.00
0.00
4
0.00
0.00
5
35,000,000.00
23,820,411.90
6
15,000,000.00
9,452,544.40
7
15,000,000.00
8,752,355.93
8
15,000,000.00
8,104,033.27
9
15,000,000.00
7,503,734.51
10
15,000,000.00
6,947,902.32
11
15,000,000.00
6,433,242.89
12
113,000,000.00
44,873,854.73
13
113,000,000.00
41,549,865.49
14
113,000,000.00
38,472,097.67
15
113,000,000.00
35,622,312.66
16
113,000,000.00
32,983,622.83
17
113,000,000.00
30,540,391.51
18
113,000,000.00
28,278,140.29
19
113,000,000.00
26,183,463.23
20
113,000,000.00
24,243,947.44
21
113,000,000.00
22,448,099.48
22
113,000,000.00
20,785,277.29
23
113,000,000.00
19,245,627.12
24
113,000,000.00
17,820,025.12
25
113,000,000.00
16,500,023.26
Total:
490,560,973.34
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If I were to tinker the construction a little and shorten it say by 2 years.
It jumps to $568 million USD for our share.
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If its under 5% interest as what Golf suggested, NPV is bewteen $761 - $837 million with the 5 vs 3 year construction.
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That being said, it still falls into the figures of QB2 minority share purchased and minority share sold by Teck. I feel this is an absolute base of what SC can command pricewise as we know capex is less and quicker construction time and payback periods. On top of that this is a carried interest as well.
Still my numbers here don't mean anything until we know all the study results.
Look at QB2, it went from a FS 1.253 billion valuation to a $4 billion sanction valuation.
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