Re: Asset sale in progress?
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 21, 2020 12:56AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Thanks for bringing some fresh air to the board. I agree with your logic. When looking at previous slides, seems to be 104M the following 14 years, but 113M is not far off!
that's what I thought but maybe it was an older slide i had and it's 113 but being so far away it's not significant
Also, according to the slides (2015 presentation), all amounts are in CAD dollars, so the end results should be closer to 450M CAD based on my calculation.
what is closer? Npv?
Assuming that the current exchange rate increases cashflow by 85%, that brings me to around 820M with no further improvements. I'm not considering the long term metal prices as they will be close to the 2013 range.
basically my math is entirely based on 2013 fs and assuming all the same input numbers or 97 cents forex etc that's why whatever npv amount I come up with it's basically usd since they're pretty much at par in the fs
its too confusing to figure out the cdn value I think I might end up using the forex twice
With improvements, assuming the stream of net cashflow would increase our valuation to 1.2B for 25%, if the market is ready to pay 65% of the NAV, this would bring us to 780M.
This is my problem, I don't know how to figure out the cash flows improvements. We don't know the capex and opex savings.
On a side note, did you calculate what percentage of the NAV Teck paid for the minority interest? I'd love your input on this if you want to share. For my part, assuming they will get the full 262.5M and using 3B as the NAV, my price/NAV ratio is close to 65%.
i don't like using percentage of nav as we don't know what figures they're using.
basically qb2 fs shows 1.253 billion npv
If it's that figure Teck paid 20% of it.
after sanctioning qb2, they sold 30% to sumitomo for 1.2 billion assuming value of qb2 to be $4 billion.
in tecks qb2 slide, they show npv value to be in the range of 1.5 billion to 4 billion dollars. What is sc? 513 million to $2 billion?
how much is the carried interest portion worth?
imagine owning this mine without paying for any production costs? Think about sc2? Sc3? We're carried through. Sumitomo needs to fork up more money for qb3. There is a lot of value in sc that a lot of people don't see. And you know what, not a lot of mines contain 4 kinds of metal.
As you mentionned, Schaft Creek should at least get something equivalent.