Need to correct my assumptions for the post-SCJV scenario as Teck would get all the cash flow until payback is completed.
For Teck (75%), see below the approximate stream of net cash flows (in millions) based on the 2013 FS.
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Year -5: -100
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Year 1: -225
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Year 6: 725
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Year 11: 37.5
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Year 16: 18.75
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Year -4: -300
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Year 2: 800
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Year 7: 468.75
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Year 12: 150
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Year 17: 300
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Year -3: -1000
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Year 3: 650
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Year 8: 393.75
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Year 13: 318.75
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Year 18: 506.25
|
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Year -2: -1000
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Year 4: 475
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Year 9: 318.75
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Year 14: 431.25
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Year 19: 600
|
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Year -1: -825
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Year 5: 575
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Year 10: 187.5
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Year 15: 168.75
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Year 20: 675
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|
|
|
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Year 21: 243.75
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Entering all these values in the calculator should give you a positive NPV (8%) around 151M.
For Schaft Creek (25%), see below the approximate stream of net cash flows (in millions) based on the 2013 FS.
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Year -5: 0
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Year 1: 0
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Year 6: 0
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Year 11: 12.5
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Year 16: 6.25
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Year -4: 0
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Year 2: 0
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Year 7: 156.25
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Year 12: 50
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Year 17: 100
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Year -3: 0
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Year 3: 0
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Year 8: 131.25
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Year 13: 106.25
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Year 18: 168.75
|
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Year -2: 0
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Year 4: 0
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Year 9: 106.25
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Year 14: 143.75
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Year 19: 200
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Year -1: 0
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Year 5: 0
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Year 10: 62.5
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Year 15: 56.25
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Year 20: 225
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|
|
|
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Year 21: 81.25
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Entering all these values in the calculator should give you a positive NPV (8%) around 369M.
Conclusion: The sum of each individual NPV does equal 520M, but we can clearly see that the business case for each company is completely different. For Teck, the projects profitability was reduced by 239M (from 390M to 151M) and for Copper Fox it increased 239M (from 130M to 369M).
IMO.
MoneyK
