SC PFS (2008) vs. FS (2013) and possible FS/PEA (2021)
posted on
Jan 23, 2021 03:04PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
While we wait for the SC 2021 PEA, I tried to build a table to compare the 2008 PFS vs. the 2013 FS and also added a column with some of my assumptions for the 2021 PEA report.
This is purely my own opinion and me trying to polish my crystal ball, but hoping some might enjoy the exercice and challenge the numbers so we can all learn together.
|
PFS (2008) |
FS (2013) |
FS/PEA (2021) |
Tonnage |
100 000 tpd |
130 000 tpd |
133 000 tpd |
Mine Life |
22.6 years |
21 years |
25.6 years |
|
|
|
|
Reserves |
821.1 MT |
940.8 MT |
1293 MT |
|
|
|
|
Grades |
|
|
|
Copper (Cu) |
0.25% |
0.27% |
0.26% |
Gold (Au) |
0.18 g/t |
0.19 g/t |
0.16 g/t |
Silver (Ag) |
1.55 g/t |
1.7 g/t |
1.2 g/t |
Moly (Mo) |
0.019% |
0.018% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
Recoveries |
|
|
|
Copper (Cu) |
88.4% |
86.6% |
88.4% |
Gold (Au) |
81.3% |
73% |
81.3% |
Silver (Ag) |
70.7% |
48.3% |
70.7% |
Moly (Mo) |
71.3% |
58.8% |
71.3% |
|
|
|
|
Total production (LOM) |
|
|
|
Copper (Cu) |
4.762B lbs |
4.875B lbs |
6.586B lbs |
Gold (Au) |
4,493T oz. |
4,213T oz. |
5,312T oz. |
Silver (Ag) |
32.5M oz. |
25.1M oz. |
33.4M oz. |
Moly (Mo) |
255.2M lbs |
214.9M lbs |
303.8M lbs |
|
|
|
|
Annual production (LOM) |
|
|
|
Copper (Cu) |
211M lbs |
232M lbs |
257M lbs |
Gold (Au) |
199T oz. |
201T oz. |
208T oz. |
Silver (Ag) |
1.4M oz. |
1.2M oz. |
1.3M oz. |
Moly (Mo) |
11.3M lbs |
10.2M lbs |
11.9M lbs |
|
|
|
|
Annual production (Y 1-7) |
|
|
|
Copper |
|
261M lbs |
289M lbs |
Gold |
|
247T oz. |
270T oz. |
Silver |
|
1.2M oz. |
1.3M oz. |
Moly |
|
9.8M lbs |
11.4M lbs |
CuEq |
|
425.1M lbs |
456.7M lbs |
|
|
|
|
Annual production (Y 8-25) |
|
|
|
Copper |
|
204M lbs |
245Mlbs |
Gold |
|
164T oz. |
184T oz. |
Silver |
|
1.0M oz. |
1.3M oz. |
Moly |
|
10.2M lbs |
12M lbs |
CuEq |
|
331.3M lbs |
370M lbs |
|
|
|
|
Total cost per lbs of Cu |
$1.17 CA |
$2.09 CA |
$1.50 CA |
|
|
|
|
Price |
|
|
|
Copper (lbs) |
$3.12 |
$3.25 |
$3.15 |
Gold (oz.) |
$692.85 |
$1445 |
$1445 |
Silver (oz.) |
$13.09 |
$27.74 |
$17.50 |
Moly (lbs) |
$33.00 |
$14.64 |
$10 |
Exchange rate |
1 |
0.97 |
0.77 |
|
|
|
|
Capex |
2.95B |
3.2B |
2.8B |
Construction time (years) |
3 |
7 |
4 |
Payback (years) |
4.9 |
6.5 |
3.2 |
|
|
|
|
Pre-tax NPV (8%) |
2.76B |
513M |
6B |
IMO.
MoneyK