Re: Copper's ascent is actually accelerating!
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 19, 2021 01:23PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
I'm not expecting VD to sell for more than 50-60% of the NAV at this stage, but even if we get to that, it's a lot more than many were expecting.
I'll take just about anything at this stage.
VD's NPV7.5 is $645M USD. This is based on a margin of $2 per lb ($3.15 CU minus VD's AISC of $1.14/lb - all USD).
I somehow highly doubt we will be giving away VD with a big discount, if any, when spot copper is holding above $4, and also in view of the low-risk profile of a low-capex mine.
If I am right, we will soon be seeing $5 spot copper, where the margin is then $4 per lb usd, essentially it would more than double the NPV. At that stage it would be insane to discount a NPV7.5 value that based on half the current margin. If Ernesto has to wait for consensus LT pricing to catch up to the new reality, then I think he will. As an accountant he understands how much he would be leaving on the table by not waiting. Anyway, jmho.
By the way...$645M USD coverts to $815M CAD...so if we can get close to that then it would translate to $1.35 to $1.63 per CUU share as a dividend... Yeah Okay, I take it!!
JMHO