Re: Another week- no news
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posted on
Aug 14, 2021 03:54PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
I hadn't looked at it before. One article lists a price of $ 456 million CDN but two others and Newmont themselves have $ 393 million CDN, so I'll go with that number.
According to this article https://www.miningnewsnorth.com/story/2021/03/12/news/newmont-offers-393m-to-acquire-gt-gold/6733.html a PEA was supposed to be completed at about the time of the acquistion, so Newmont, as a 15% shareholder, would have had access to the PEA economics. A comparison with SC:
SC total M&I&I 13.6 billion lbs cueq, 25% = 3.4 billion lbs cueq
Using the metal prices used by CUU in their fact sheet to get the cueq numbers we use cu = $3/lb, au= $1200/oz and ag= $20/oz
GT had an I&I resource estimate of 4.79 billion lbs cu, 8.93 million oz au and 19.22 million oz ag. Using the metal prices above to compare projects I get 8.5 billion lbs cueq. Then I use 85% of that to remove the 15% owned by Newmont to get 7.22 billion lbs cueq. There a number of ways to calculate the dollar value if Newmont was buying out the 25% of SC. I took the ratio of 3.4/7.22 billion lbs cueq from the two projects to get 47% and multiply that times $ 393 million to get $ 185 million, add the $ 50 million value in the JV contract, and get $ 235 million. Divide by 550 million shares to get 43 cents a share, which is about where the market is pricing the stock right now. Let me know if you see any errors. GT no longer has a website so I can't easily check what other potential exists.