Re: Bloomberg Reported - March 5/08
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 23, 2008 12:39PM
Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America
Gold, you have some nice insight, but you need to keep a couple of things in mind:
#1 - Until there is a permit in hand, most financial insititutions will not care about he ounces in the ground or anything else. We seem to think that "big money" will be anxious to invest in speculative stocks like KRY because of the huge potential. But they are not independent investors and they have to answer daily, weekly quarterly etc. to their clients who will want to see a gain NOW. Until there is a permit they will put their money in safer areas. Any speculative plays are only done with limited capital.
#2 - Another group of investors (big money investors too) are playing KRY now. These are more heavily speculating companies and they are looking for a single catalyst, a spark that wil ignite a quick gain and then they are gone.
Group #1 is bigger so when group #2 hits their permit paydirt and exits, Group #1 will wait for the short sighted longs (who will now think themsleves luck) to exit with Group #2. When Group #1 gets in it will be with an eye on the amount of gold as well as the potential of a buy out, fundamentals and all the issues of a real mining company.
The jump in PPS from Group #1's entry will be much more than the permit jump and more stable but it will take longer. Keep that in mind when anyone decides to exit 100% on permit.
As far as the nationalization of the mine is concerned you are probably right that it is a fear for some, but the truth is that Las Cristinas was nationalized years ago. It was after the mine was nationalized that KRY was given an operating CONTRACT to remove the gold, but they do not own it and never did. Therefore, in reality, there should be no fear of nationalization.