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Message: Re: Green or Red Today?---Ian
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May 14, 2008 04:58AM
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May 14, 2008 05:26AM

May 14, 2008 06:47PM

Re: Green or Red Today?---Ian

posted on May 14, 2008 07:32PM

Lots of questions and my answers would be mostly speculation.

#1 - I don't think we have support anywhere right now since there is too much uncertainty. We will be played like a fiddle by traders.

#2 - Does KRY have value if Chavez denies the permit? That is difficult to say. Initially we would spike below .50, then people would enter speculating on legal remedies etc. Where that would take us is anybodies guess. My minimum valuation is .75.

#3 - Do I think Hugo will grant the permit? First, I don't think we will have any resolution from the hearings but rather we will be given an opportunity to present our case for the environment and Hugo will renogotiate the terms. Chavez is walking on very thin ice in the international community because like it or not his folks approved the EIS and most importantly they accepted the bond/tax money. Once you accept money which is understod to be in exchange for something like a permit, you run the risk of being seen as an extortionist if you fail to comply. I don't think Hugo is as dumb as people think but I also think he will push for as much as he can get. In the end I think the permit will be issued but the terms of the contract will undoubtedly change. I also think it will take more time to be resolved. KRY is in the tight spot financially, not VZ.

#4 - Market cap post permit. There are many people better able to look at the fundamentals and tell you what it should be worth. Much depends on what if any changes are made to the contract. Personally I don't think it will ever realize the anticipated value because I think long before that KRY will end up being sold or will sell it's contract to another player (probably Russian). The Russians are in the same area as KRY but have been applauded as model company while GRZ and KRY have ben bitch slapped. That to me indicates the direction VZ wants this to go. This contradicts the idea that it is environmental issues vs company issues. But this would also be a way to accomplish his goals and not piss of Canada too much. We would all likely gain from this.

All of this asside, I really don't think Chavez is the chaotic fiend he is made out to be. He is smart and aggressive, but he knows he also needs foreign money and he will make powerful enemies if he throws GRZ and KRY to the trenches. regardless of what he does with the permit, I think he will provide some relief valve to let KRY and GRZ exit gracefully if the worst should happen and he denies the permits (but I don't think that will happen).



All of this is JMHO. Good night to all and good luck.




May 14, 2008 08:43PM
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May 15, 2008 02:05AM
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May 15, 2008 02:47AM
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