I still expect a permit and no need for arbitration, but I took a look at the ICSID cases against Venezuela since 1996 just to see how things had gone.

There are eleven arbitrations on record against Venezuela in the ICSID database. Six remain pending and five are concluded. Of the five concluded, two resulted in awards, one a settlement in a year, one dismissed for failure of claimant to pay arbitration fees, and one discontinued at the request of the claimant (probably also a settlement).

Of the pending cases most are newer with two in 2008 (Cemex and Brandes Investment Partners, LP) and three in 2007 (Conoco, Mobil and Eni Dación B.V.).

It looks like the average time to the first hearing is about a year, and the concluded cases took two to three years to an award.

http://icsid.worldbank.org/ICSID/Ind...