JMO, but I think there are two significant steps that have to happen here.

First, the election.

Then, Chavez' trip to China. They will want his signature on either a global agreement covering China's investments in Vennie - sort of like a promissory note; or a bunch of sector-related agreements. Then things will be ready to go.

There is, however, one unrelated issue that could delay Chavez' trip to China. The Korean Peninsula is about to move cemtre stage, and not for the best of reasons. The North has made an unprecedented announcement that within the next ten days, the Workers' party will be holding a congress - the first in some 20+ years, to discuss succession, among other things.

Due in part to his illness (perhaps a stroke), Kim has ceded some power to the army, and his choice to succeed him has to be approved by the army - and that is not a slam-dunk this time around. China is terrified of that regime falling apart - it cannot absorb the millions of refugees who would strewam across their border with N. Korea. If something uncomfortable happens there in the next 2-3 weeks, the PRC's eyes will be diverted from all else.

Just like this stock, eh? Always something lurking in the shadows.

JMHO.