Negative $7.5 Million = Market Appraisal of Our Stock Holdings
posted on
May 12, 2012 05:42AM
Resource projects cover more than 1,713 km2 in three provinces at various stages, including the following: hematite magnetite iron formations, titaniferous magnetite & hematite, nickel/copper/PGM, chromite, Volcanogenic Massive and gold.
As I said in my previous message, “On Second Thought,” whether we issue an additional 10 million shares or not does not change the irrationally negative appraisal the market has given our Stock Holdings. So far as the $3 million in cash for the additional 10 million shares: If we don’t issue them we don’t get that $3 million. That’s counterbalanced by also not getting the additional $3 million market capitalization those additional 10 million shares represent.
The following figures are those should the fundamentals of the original Champion/Fancamp agreement remain in place. However, cancelling the sale of 10 million new shares does not reduce or increase one cent the hard numerically determined $7.5 million disconnect I’m about to describe.
You can think of Fancamp as primarily consisting of four parts:
1) Shares of Stock we own in other companies.
2) Cash in the Bank.
3) NSRs (Net Smelter Returns or Net Smelter Royalties).
4) Properties.
#1) Stock We Own in Other Companies:
After the markets closed Friday, 11 May 2012, two days after the main
Champion/Fancamp Press Release:
$27,834,683 = Our Market Capitalization. FNC closed at $0.255 share
(including all 18 million new shares).
$17,429,000 = Value of our 15,025,000 shares of CHM at $1.16 share.
$6,750,000 = Value of our 9,000,000 shares of RGX at $0.75 share.
Subtracting the value of our CHM stock and RGX stock, the market valuation of the entire remainder of Fancamp stood at $3,655,683, at weekend.
For the sake of clarity and simplicity, I have not factored in our minor stock holdings in other companies.
#2) Cash in the Bank
Our Market Valuation (without CHM and RGX stock) compared to Our Cash:
$3,655,683 = FNC without CHM and RGX stock (but with everything else, including Cash)
$11,157,535 = Champion Transaction Cash + Last Financial Statement Cash (of 1/31/2012)
(The up-to-the-minute number is $11,157,535 minus the Post January Cash Burn.)
Approximately Negative $7.5 million = Market Valuation of Fancamp without CHM and RGX.
Negative 7 Cents Share = Cost of FNC Stock without CHM Stock or RGX Stock.
Of course, you could consider it to be not quite that bad in light of the Cash Burn since January. But, then again, we gain offsetting values for cash. Drilling and other corporate activities make the company worth more compared to sitting back and not spending a dime. So when we evaluate our NSRs and our property assets, we don’t really need to go to any long lengths to water down the negativity of how severely negative the number Negative $7.5 million really is.
#3) NSRs (Part of the Negative $7.5 Million Piece remaining after cashing in our Stock Holdings)
Besides the 15,025,000 shares of Champion, we will retain 1.5% of the NSR of Fermont.
(The Champion/Argex agreement terminates Champion’s previous option to buy back 0.5% of our 1.5%)
Besides the 9,000,000 shares of Argex, we will retain 1% of the NSR of Argex’s main property (Hanna/Consolidated Morrison).
(The way I read the tortured language of the NSR agreement, after we split 4% of the NSR with Sheridan, Argex can buy back half our 2% for half of $1.5 million.)
We also have a list of other assorted NSRs. Presumably, those miscellaneous NSRs, on properties here and there, have only token value compared to those of Champion and Argex.
There have been people, posting to this Message Hub, who have estimated, in approximately two years, an income in the tens of millions of dollars annually for the NSRs. As far as I’m concerned, I wouldn’t even know where to begin compiling accurately determined NSR numbers. So, I cannot vouch for anybody else’s numbers. But I’d love to learn and would appreciate other estimates, especially with explanations as to how they were determined.
Of course, I do know NSRs are bought and sold. So, I doubt ours are less than worthless.
#4) Properties (Part of the Negative $7.5 Million Piece remaining after cashing in our Stock Holdings)
One transitional piece of the puzzle is McFauld’s Lake, which we’re in the process of monetizing. Bold Ventures will be paying us directly $2.2 million plus incurring $8 million in exploration expenses over the next three years to earn their 60% share. By then, the production feasibility will have been established.
As I did earlier, I’ll be summarizing Magpie values, again, before long.
One of the things I previously calculated was $100 per Fully Diluted Fancamp Share
captured 2.5% of the Spot Prices of the combined Magpie Titanium and Iron Ores.
A link to my February 1st analysis of the numbers follows.
http://agoracom.com/ir/Fancamp/forums/discussion/topics/517476-ferrotitanium-prices-are-at-historical-levels/messages/1642094#message
This message is long enough already. For now, I’ll leave it to others to comment on the total value of all our mineral resources on all our properties and to what degree and on what scale that value exceeds Negative $7.5 million.