Leases Come and Go
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 20, 2013 05:54PM
Resource projects cover more than 1,713 km2 in three provinces at various stages, including the following: hematite magnetite iron formations, titaniferous magnetite & hematite, nickel/copper/PGM, chromite, Volcanogenic Massive and gold.
Thank you, Aurizon, for bringing up (on Monday) the subject of leases. The more pieces of the puzzle we fit together, the better we are for doing it.
My take is: Just as you can be smart or dumb acquiring a lease, you can be smart or dumb keeping it. There are no guarantees either way.
So far as keeping every single one of our leases forever, I wouldn’t. And (without having specifically spoken to Jean Lafleur about it) I very much doubt that anything near the business logic of keeping everything factors into his present thinking. Just the opposite. As we all know, we have no shortage of far-flung leases in never-never lands.
However, those are not the places in Jean Lafleur’s present travel itinerary. Remember, he’s literally travelling to the ends of Planet Earth with his plans to monetize our assets. Moreover, he’s unmistakably expressed that sentiment in recent news releases and informal conversations. Most noteworthy of all is how he spelled out the monetization in the January 2013 Fancamp Presentation:
1) Champion, Argex, and Uracan NSRs. Of course, these are percentage monetized returns.
2) Argex shares are freely tradable this coming October (and are presently trading at close to Fancamp’s present entire market capitalization).
3) Fermont (via Champion). “Our goal is to ensure management is focused on a near-term production profile as we adhere to our new business model (cash, shares, royalty). [bold red typeface, page 8]”
4) McFauld’s Lake (via Bold). “Cash...shares...royalty. [bold red typeface, page 14]”
5) Magpie Mines. “Spinout in the next 12-24 months. Obtain cash/shares/royalty. [bold red typeface, page 12]”
6) Lac Lamêlée South. “Sell in 12-24 months. Obtain cash/shares/royalty. [bold red typeface, page 10]”
7) Desolation Lake. “Sell in 24-36 months. Obtain cash/shares/royalty. [bold red typeface, page 13]”
8) “Appalachian Regional Exploration in Quebec and New Brunswick...All early/new properties to be advanced to next decision points [page 15]...Planned sale in the next 12-24 months for cash, shares and royalty. [bold red typeface, page 15]” Clinton (copper) is part of this Quebec/Maine border area (as is Stoke). “Spinout in next 12 months. Obtain cash/shares/royalty. [bold red typeface, page 16]” Stoke (copper): “Spinout in next 12 months. Obtain cash/shares/royalty. [bold red typeface, page 17]”
Do you notice a recurring theme? Do these sound like the words of someone in a hurry to spend every last cent on keeping our unexplored exploration leases? Lafleur, unambiguously, has spelled out his plan. He does not even want to keep our successful (and halfway successful) projects. In no way, shape or form, does his thinking coincide with that of Rago’s who pointed out (Monday, on this Message Hub) that we could sell two million Argex shares for the expressed purpose of renewing all our leases.
So far as our leases, in light of all our past—very significant—exploration successes, it makes sense to allow most of the unexplored or little explored property leases to lapse. You could think of this in a positive (and logical) light. This is not so much a question of having made past mistakes (which we should put behind us) as it is a question of the inevitable costs behind success, which includes separating out what’s bad or (not cost effective to pursue) as opposed to what’s very much worth pursuing full speed ahead.
So far as future opportunities lost, a case could be made for what we give up as being more than made up by what we might gain by acquiring selected leases someone else let lapse. In other words, identifying specific plots of land to explore is a fluid—not static—process. You continuously learn. When you find or do not find something in one place, that tells you something about the nearby places. You don’t have to drill every one of them.
So far as having, in the past, tied up too many plots unnecessarily, there could have been more necessity in having done that than appears to be the case in hindsight. Keep in mind, Fancamp being a public company, publishes its drill results, which cannot be kept secret. What happens when we hit pay dirt? Without having prudently secured nearby properties in advance, others cannot be faulted for rushing in and grapping what we left unprotected.
On the other hand, having learned from our previous explorations, we’re now increasingly in a better position to draw the line between good and bad plots of land (whether leased by us or leased or abandoned by others). Also, having had sufficient success, we’re now in a great position to prioritize the monetization of our assets as opposed to acquiring more assets or spending time and money hypothesizing on increasingly doubtful speculative properties.
Certainly, at this point, I would not be in a hurry to trade away any of our Argex shares for any of our unexplored properties. Certainly, at this point, our explored areas are far more the interesting investment than our unexplored areas. Therefore, using Argex money to buy (and retire) Fancamp shares makes better sense.