Re: The problem with ECU as I see it
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 14, 2008 02:42AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
I think there are several problems here. The first needs to be corrected by the company. There is a mismatch on the financials between the operating costs in 06 and the first half of 07, these are described by the company as increased operating costs without indicating what and why. What and why was as described to coach and indicated on that post, (thanks for posting), but this needs to be formally released by the company. Any help available in pushing this forward to management would be great.
Second - all junior Canadian resource stocks are on a 2004 low. According to the few articles Ive read on this subject this is largely due to concern about rising costs, coupled with concerns about a global recession. So couple this with loose comments from ECU on this same subject and we have a 'perception' of reducing profitability problem. The global recession is being eased by loose monetary policy which supports PMs, but the gold silver ratio is way out of whack, and silver really needs to motor to get close to historical norms, this is all bullish ECU.
Last,commoditoes rise in individual cycles, the pms do particularly well when interst rates are being cut which reduces returns from treasuries. Money goes into pms and particularly in stocks. The last occurrence was in 2003 whch gave rise to a major move up generally in pm stocks, and put high multiples on all silver stocks. Silver has yet to put in the % rise that would put it on a par with other commodities. The smaller scale of the silver market coupled with the volatility in the small cap juniors is likely to create substantial upwards momentum in stocks with the right fundamentals, so its really a key issue that all the positive and explanatory information being circulated by management is converted into a formal and public means asap.