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Message: Revisiting the Lasonde Curve

Perhaps it's time to step back out of the weeds and look at LAC from a broader context. The Lasonde Curve depicts typical, broad brush moves in relative value as a junior miner moves from the speculative stage to production. LAC (Thacker Pass) is obviously in the Orphan Phase, having come down from it's earlier highs that were unwarranted in terms of time away from production, and were fueled by short term speculators. This is a good place to be because from here there should be a meaningful upward trend as production approaches. As the company splits, we could place LAAC (Cauchari) higher on the upward trend line as they ramp up to full production. These observations do not take into account future expansion because by then both LACs will be behaving like normal miners, not pre-production juniors.

And the Lasonde Curve is not a meaningless pattern. Miners themselves recognize where they are on the curve, as evidenced recently when Critical Minerals (CRE.TSX) self-identified as being in the Orphan Phase. They are at the same point as the Thacker Pass project, having started early works, awaiting financing followed by full construction, and then production in 2+ years.

I posted a picture of the Lasonde Curve on this forum in September 2022. It's still here, in the PHOTOS section. At that time I placed Thacker Pass in the Orphan Phase and Cauchari higher on the curve. It seems I was about a year ahead of myself, but in my defense we've seen about a year's delay recently in both projects due to litigation around Thacker Pass and delays in final construction and commissioning in Cauchari. 

I am eagerly awaiting the point where institutional investors come in wholeheartedly. I expect we'll see it immediately in LAAC after the split, because it is totally derisked and in the early stages of full production.

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