Re: One more hype to add on DDiligen's two cents RE: DDiligens
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 11, 2007 07:31AM
Perhaps I'm too ignorant to fully grasp your post, but here's the way I see re: S&L/warrants:
It doesn't matter what the share price is! They are, in essence, trading out shares. They sell some on the open market, then convert a like amount, rinse, repeat. They make their profit on the warrant conversion, while maintaining the maximum number of retail shares. Think it through, and again, the PPS is of no importance in this scenario. It's just a swapping out, securing the profit, and maintaining for future greater gains.
So what is important? The need to convert as many warrants as possible, as soon as possible. This, in IMO (and I'd bet their's), is essential for near term PPS appreciation. When they're done, most of the resistance we see today will be gone. And that's "resistance" in two forms.
Most obvious is the probable resistance their selling presents on any good news/volume trading.
The other resistance is from those on the sidelines and/or prospective investors who heard of us, saw the warrants, and backed away. This is exactly what one of my friends did. I told him our compelling story, he did some DD on the financials, and held back because of the outstanding warrants. The interesting thing here is that this same friend, keeping an eye on us, noted the near halfing of outstanding warrants per last reporting, and has now taken a significant position. THAT's how important this is. Sophisticated investors, the ones with real money to play with, do their DD.
What's tough on us and for S&L is how to go about this. It would appear, based on PPS fluctuation over the past year, that they've tried various approaches to this endeavor (though perhaps they didn't "see the light" until about 6-8 months ago - the "depression period"). How would you do it? Need to dump millions of shares ASAP, but without driving the PPS into the dirt in the process. Some would agrue that we're already in the dirt (actually, that's my opinion), but they COULD drive us into the .20's/teens if they pushed the panic button - which might would be the best thing, just "get 'er done". But we longs are pissed NOW, so what wrath would befall them if they did that?
This suggests to me that they, just maybe, aren't the heartless bad guys they are often depicted to be. They COULD dump 20M shares in a week (if there are that many warrants left) and kill the PPS, and cause a lot of longs to cut and run. It wouldn't, IMO, make any difference to them financially. So I suspect that they are trying to use an approach that get's it done realitively soon, but without causing zigs in the PPS trend or Longs running for the exits. In other words, it appears to me their is some conbsideration for US and in our deserved reward.
They are looking LONG TERM, and recognize that the outstanding warrants are a drag. And I'd bet that the outstanding warrants is a significant factor of our P/E multiple of under 10 (BTW, did anyone else note what NEC's P/E multiple is? 494 - four hundred ninety-four!).
All JMHO, and I KNOW absolutely nuttin"!
And DDiligen, I'm not interested in picking a fight or being combative in any way. Your post, as I read it, provided a segway for the above thoughts that have been swimming in my feeble brain for awhile now.
SGE