$2.90 or more...SGE..
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 14, 2007 09:25AM
"It seems every time I do any calculations involving what I consider realistic P/Es, I bump my head on an outrageous market cap."
Yup, every day! In looking at most of the companies in our sector, IMO, ARM is quite possibly the closest comparison of what Patriot could become short term if we are successful in Texas, and the USPTO re-exam. I say short term because I don't know where our current management can take this company beyond the MMP, IMO it is too early to tell.
I use ARM as the comparison company because IMO we have many similarities.
OS:
ARM = 454
MPTSC = 391M
Free Float:
ARM = 295M
PTSC = 386M
PTSC is higher which can be problematic short term, but if we are successful in Texas and licenses continue to come in than IMO this ratio will change and could be lower than ARM’s as large institutions and insiders hopefully see the value and take larger positions.
Debt:
PTSC and ARM have 0 Debt
Diluted EPS
ARM = .18
PTSC = .04
ARM is higher, but because our overhead is lower, IMO we could blow by this if things go well.
Cash:
ARM = $204M
PTSC = $20M
Again ARM is higher, but hopefully we will soon be close to or exceed their # if things progress as expected.
So, IMO, if things go well enough to get our ratios close to ARM’s, than it is possible that our SP could be trading around $8-$9/share, and personally I would be very happy about that. FWIW, ARM currently trades at a PE of 45. Hope all is well. Good luck to you, me, us, and all longs.