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Message: Re: gcduck, the Cohen report shows over $167 MILLION in Revenues over the next 5

Jan 06, 2009 07:44AM
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Jan 06, 2009 08:19AM

Re: gcduck, the Cohen report shows over $167 MILLION in Revenues over the next 5

posted on Jan 07, 2009 05:07AM
 We forecast three scenarios and value PTSC common stock using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method for each scenario. Our Base Case scenario describes what we believe is the most likely outcome based on a ramp-up of CDX deployments in the government and healthcare markets. Our DCF methodology describes an appropriate valuation for the end of FY09. Our single point price target for our Base Case forecast and a terminal growth rate of 7% is $1.01 per share. I assume he's talking about the end of May 2009???
For a long-term price target, we focus on projected EPS in FY11. Our forecast describes a compound annual EPS growth rate of 35%. Most high growth companies are valued at multiples greater than 1x the long term growth rate, but due to the Company’s transition into an operating entity and the nascent nature of the public sector and healthcare data sharing markets, we apply a 22% discount to the company’s growth rate in our forecast. By applying the resulting 30x multiple to our FY11 EPS forecast, we calculate a single point long-term price target of $1.43. Since stock prices typically discount future earnings, the timeframe for our long-term target price is 18 to 24 months.
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