Time for this forum to get back on track.
posted on
Apr 07, 2010 02:32PM
I would like to remind everyone of something that's been said many times. The patents, the 336' in particular, have never been invalid. While I would welcome positive news regarding the '336, I believe investors have become unrealistically optimistic regarding the immediate windfall from such an event. The MMP portfolio isn't new. Potential infringers have known about this program for years. With each event the USPTO has given those companies a better feel for how the process may end. I find it hard to believe, at this juncture, that companies are still sitting around bitting their nails waiting on the outcome. IMO, they have already made the decision whether to license or not.
We've signed approximately 70 companies to date. How many are on notice now, 800+? If this was baseball our batting avg. is around .087. On the surface that looks horrific, however, does anyone have concrete numbers regarding a licensing companies expectations? I have no idea how one gauges whether or not a program has been "successful". I am of the opinion that our licensing program has reached the mature stage and those remaining infringers have entrenched themselves. I believe the MMP has been successful. Anytime you bring in revenue/profit for you product one must consider it a success. Now trying to figure out whether that product was leveraged to it's maximum value is a different story. I have no knowledge of the patent licensing industry so I'm not equipped to judge whether or not TPL maximized margins.
I measure this investment the same way I did in the beginning, TPL's success rate. Neither this forum or any other has been responsible for bringing down the SP. Forget the pumpers or bashers. As I've said many times before, one doesn't have to look any further than Alliacense. They exemplify the skill of finely worded press releases. If one had bought PTSC stock on their hyping alone, you are now well under water. I think most people have convinced themselves the primary reason behind the lack of signings must be directly related to the amount of money TPL is seeking. I think the truth lies somewhere in between. Perhaps TPL has upped the ante with remaining infringers. I'm sure that has slowed down negotiations. On the other side of the coin, I believe the remaining lack of activity is simply do to the fact that the MMP licensing program is maturing. This, IMO, is were Patriot made their biggest mistake and Swartz made his greatest move. PTSC grossly misjudged the amount of revenue that would come in and the time frame in which it would occur. Swartz, on the other hand, didn't wait to find out how the song would end. He negotiated his dividends on stock/warrants, unloaded his shares and got out.
I still believe the MMP will continue to generate revenue. I do, however, think investors should temper their expectations regarding a positive USPTO outcome. You have one group saying Patriot is toast, you have another saying katy bar the doors after the USPTO revalidates the patents. IMO, the only real game changer left is a sizeable court judgement. Perhaps with a positive USPTO outcome, that "game changer" will come into play for TPL and allow them to breath life into a newly revalidated product. It kind of reminds me of Palm versus RIM. Both companies saw their products mature. Palm sat back and watched their product mature and stagnate. RIM, on the the other hand, took that mature product and breathed new life into it. One is on their way out, the other controls 42% of the US smartphone market. Let's hope for a positive USPTO outcome giving TPL the firepower to breath new life into the MMP through the court system, if needed.