As Colonel Klink likes to say 'Very interesting....'
Numerology, an ancient science.
The fun of it is... do the numbers predict or do the readers of the numbers react thereby fullfilling the prediction?
Looking at the numbers, and assuming a 'strong trend retracement ...
If we never hit the 38%, then we can just ignore the whole thing, as if the theory never existed....
While if we go through and turnaround at anypoint between 38% and 62%, we can say... 'see, it works!'
Well there you have it: the theory will be right, or at least not wrong, for up to a 62% retracement!
I'm sure I don't understand all of it but many of these theories, elliot wave and others, remind me of astrology. There is enough there to lead one to believe, but is it because one believes that one sees? Again, like astrological signs, if you tell the Leo that 'Leos tend to be bold at times' the Leo says to himself, 'heh, that's me!'.
Again, fun stuff.
In our guessing game, it also just occured to me, that your black box was well covered, since it offered TWO points of resistance on the upside. The rest of us who played only had ONE guess.
I know one thing that Fibonacci didn't know. NOT is going to continue to go UP for a good long while to come. What does Fibonacci say about that?
;-)
Cheers,
BK