"The so called Holocaust in sub prime etc will play no part in the pricing of commodities.For the record.....The sub prime etc will fuel the commodity bull with greater intensity and in the same ole fashion regards seasons ie Fall - Spring.
Don't be caught out ....This next wave is now in motion and it's going to be huge."
From your print to God's eyes. I hope you are correct, however, though I believe commodities to be of the better holdings in bad times, for me it is a measure of the difference between what I need my investment to achieve and where it actually sits. There were many predictions that NOT et al would ride through the summer on a commodities bubble, and as you can see, that certainly did not happen. Will mass sentiment see commodities as the place to be through recession or will people wait in cash? We really don't know the answer to this, but we do know that if the market has more severe dips, which is expected, we'll all go down in the big fear basket. We've experienced it before, it'll happen again. I don't think you can deny the potential impact of the sub-prime out of hand and assume that it will only bring about a strong commodity environment. The most difficult aspect of the human equation is to figure out how people will respond. Until we can do that we cannot predict market responses to moves in the market. Discussing NOT though can be a very different kettle of fish. Being that it is discovering superior resources, we may well find ourselves exempt, to a degree, from the general market if a major comes into the equation, being that the liquid majors, to some degree, move outside of the immediate market concerns looking at a bigger picture. Having written the above, I look forward to being totally surprised to find commodities blasting off in the first week of September :).