Posted by Mark Bunting on October 7, 2008 BNN Yeah, yeah, the best time to buy is when pessimism is at its highest. We know, we know.
But that old market chestnut is scant consolation right now for investors who are bleeding money.
Aside from the rare few who saw this financial crisis coming and put all of their money into government bonds and/or gold - or shorted the market - it's hard for investors to see any rays of light amid the wreckage.
But, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard and Poor’s and a frequent guest on BNN, has found some evidence that makes him, shall we say, mildly hopeful. Although, not hopeful enough to recommend nibbling at certain stocks, let alone backing up the truck to load up on them.
From a psychological perspective, Stovall says investors have gone through a range of emotions since equity indices peaked: anxiety, denial, fear, panic and capitulation (although some will argue that we haven’t seen that just yet).
The only emotion investors have yet to experience is despondency. Stovall says that recently people had been asking him, "Is it time to get back in?" Now the question is, "Is it too late to get out?" Stovall thinks that might be a contrarian indicator.
He’s also examining previous bear markets and this current one could be indicating that it's getting close to going back into hibernation.
The S&P 500, as of the Oct. 6 close, has fallen 33.8% from its peak in October 2007. The average bear market decline is 32%. However, there are many who would argue that this bear market is far from average.
Stovall also finds that the S&P 500 has retraced 63% of its bull market advance. That compares almost exactly with the average bear market retracement of 62%.
In addition, Stovall points out that the current drops in S&P 500 industry subgroups are similar to previous times in the market when the S&P 500 was set to stage a recovery.
For example, as of Oct. 3, 92% of the subgroups had fallen in the last year. That compares with a historic average of 35% and the 96% posted by the subgroups just prior to the ultimate bottom in the market in October 2002 triggered by the tech bubble collapse and 9/11 attacks.
Stovall concludes that only a brave soul with a long-term investment outlook will have the courage right now to step into the market and buy. He's not ready yet for that. But, his point is that the moment be getting closer.