Re: They are trying to drive it down HARD before close- Fantomas (and Jacki)
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 31, 2009 11:19PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
I've been on these boards a long, long time. In all that time, I've never made a single disengenous post, but, boy, have I seen plenty of them, as we all have. If you get the idea that I'd like to see a few people sell a percentage of their holdings while the stock is at this level (or beyond if we should be so fortunate) prior to release of the NR, then you're absolutely right, and I believe that to be the correct move, whether or not it works as the stock plays out. It's for everyone to figure what they should do given their circumstances, but the one thing I'd rather not see is for people who likely should sell a portion, even 15%, not sell because they are swept away in the euphoria of this play. I haven't tried to be sly about my agenda over the past few posts; I think my feelings are pretty clear. I will also admit that I tend to be a bit pessimistic when it comes to all things stock market - and that can be a disadvantage. I have a great percentage of my net worth in the stock market, and am not at all afraid to take a gamble, but I post what I think is correct, irrespective of my personal play of the market.
If this were most other Canadian resource stocks, I'd be a lot more cautious about what might come next. NOT, on the other hand, has proven that it can run from a very low price, to a very high price (relatively speaking, of course) in a very short period of time, with great excitement. There really isn't much like the feeling you get as a stock scores a 10 bagger in just a month or so, and that's worth something in and of itself. So I fully understand the call of this siren song.
I think I first bought NOT way back in 2001 or 2002. Didn't do much for a long time, had a couple of modest runs (into the low to mid $1.00's), and would come right back down. Held maybe 50,000-60,000 shares, when the price averaged maybe .35. I think I sold many of them around .50 on one of the small runs, and then I and it sat for a long time, and finally NOT began its big run a couple of years ago. Having seen it run to $1.20 or so a few times and race right back down, I went ahead and sold half of the 21,000 shares I then had left for about $1.50, figuring for sure this would come back to the .28 cent level! Did I regret that decision - sure, but it wasn't stupid going in, only in hindsight. While I have more invested in different parts of the market, no part gives me the thrill of this stock, and one other, which I won't mention, when it had a great run about three years ago.
Anyway, I rode the rest up to the $7's, and back down, bought some more around $3.50 (thought that was a bargain - how could in not be - well, wrong again), and then maybe bought too little more around .70 or so a good while back. Since then, I've just been sitting and waiting and hoping we have another run. Well, we're hopefully only a short ways into what has already been a great and exciting run. We need to keep the momentum going, and we surely have that chance as we await the NR.
As far as how I know it's not a sure thing, I'm pretty sure it isn't - this is still the stock market, right! However, I really think some of the NOT investors that have less than the experience I have, may start to believe it's a sure thing. That's not a good idea, and can really be harmful to one's finances, not to mention psyche and emotional well-being (translation, "marriage").
What do I think an "extra good" NR would be? I'm not qualified to quantify. However, the dramatic price move of the past couple of weeks certainly includes (and likely exceeds) expectations of a "good" NR. So an "extra good" NR will keep the price at a high level, and one even better than that will keep us right on going skyward. Unlike some, I will readily admit to not being sure of certain things, but I don't think anything that I previously posted was overly pessimistic, on any kind of objective scale. I will freely admit most of my posts sound like the end of the world compared to many others!
Good luck to us all next week!