Re: Understanding The Freewest Mentality
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 05, 2009 03:56PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
The problem with your logic, rapidrop, is that many FWR holders have failed to grasp that their company is not being sold for 40 cents, but consolidated at with NOT on a 4 for 1 basis. The current value of FWR, and it potential value, will continue to exist, but as NOT shares rather than FWR shares. They are not losing anything. In fact, right now they are gaining as the market has demonstrated that FWR is more valuable if its assets are combined with NOT's.
If NOT had been offering 40 cents cash, or even a $1 cash, if I were an FWR shareholder I would be pissed, just as if BIGCO offered $3.50 cash for NOT. And, I would not even want to consolidate with BIGCO, because BIGCO would probably be too big and maybe we would not see same the speculative fervour/potential in the market once the NOT assets were theirs, as we would see with them owned by a junior. NOT and FWR are juniors who are consolidating to become stronger and more valuable junior. A junior with still lots of exploration potential, as well as some pretty significant assets. Your analogy is inappropriate.
However, if a favourable consolidation offer was made to NOT shareholders, which happened to price NOT shares at $3.50 at the time of the offer, by the 'right' junior company, with shrewd management, vision, proven nickel assets, and with further significant upside potential, then I might be quite happy. I would look past the essentially meaningless dollar figure of the transaction and consider the consolidation ratio and the benefits of the consolidation, and how it add or detract from the value of my shares whether they NOT shares or consolidated shares. A major question I would ask is would our nickel assets would become more valuable consolidated?
To make comments, arguments, or comparison about NOT's offer is misleading if doing so in terms of cash per share offer of any value. Its a consolidation, not a purchase, and that is a crucial and critical distinction. If NOT bought FWR for 40 cents, then that is all FWR shareholders would have the right to be pissed, as all they would have to show for the investment savvy is 40 cents per share. However, that is not what is happening with this offer. FWR shareholders will still have ownership in the same assets they own now, as well as NOT's assets, for an attractive 4 FWR shares for 1 NOT share, and would see a permanent increase in value of their ex-FWR shares, as they have recently experienced, due the increased value of the assets because they are controlled by one company.
If FWRs shareholders do like NOT's management, do not believe that they will realize maximum value for FWRs assets in the future, as well as NOT's assets, or, they think the FWR has significant immediate, or near term, independent upside potential that would make worth FWR worth a lot more than it currently is, then it should be on that basis that they reject NOT's offer. Do not confuse the issue by talking about cash price, because it's meaningless - the effective cash value of the offer changes every time NOTs SP changes.
Honestly, I find the 4:1 offer a bit generous, just as many FWR holders consider it to be inadequate. However, the bottom-line for both sides is that it is probably better to make some sacrifices or comprises, now, to achieve greater gains later as we become one stronger and more valuable company for that time when we are actually going to purchased on cash for share basis.
Regards,
B.