"One has to ask if there is logic to NRs coming out simply because of this deal."

Maybe more of a case of "there has been no news lately because of this deal, and now it will start to flow normally".

There are still so many unanswered questions, which will all get answered on Monday morning, but let's speculate for the fun of it.

There are and always have been 3 possible scenarios

1 CLF will easily win the vote.

2 CLF will lose the vote, but up the offer and then win the vote.

3 CLF will lose the vote, and not make a better offer.

One has to assume that they will have a pretty good handle on the vote to date. If they knew they were going to lose the vote, and were prepared to up the offer, they would do it before the vote took place. If they allow the vote and lose, it gets very complicated quickly. FWR no longer is under any obligation to support them, and could choose to align themselves with someone else (NOT?). Mac and Don would remain in control of the company, but could they hope to have shareholder support going forward after this? At a minimum, it throws the whole ROF into a turmoil immediately following the vote. Since there will be minimal vote tallying over the weekend, one could presume that any decisions regarding changing the vote date have already been made, and is not going to happen. So we can ignore option 2 and are left with only 1 and 3.

If it was tending at all possible towards option 3, and Mac was aware of it, what actions would he take? He would have to assume that somehow he was going to have to salvage what he could out of this, and certainly the first step in that direction would not be to pass a resolution allowing all the option holders (BOD) to elect for all in the money cash rather then CLF shares. This action is simply just one more slap in the face for retail shareholders. He doesn't care though as he would have a good indication of where the vote was going to end up. So we are left with only one possibility come Monday morning, and that is option 1.

I have put a good amount of time into this analysis and it all falls into place quite readily. There is no doubt in my mind. Then suddenly my better half asks me why did the FWR SP take a dive over the last couple of days then, and I am back at square one, and have no idea what is going to happen Monday morning.

Best regards

K