As a retail investor, it is very hard to know if the investment you are making is a good one, and it is very difficult to time it. The best you can do is to understand the company you are investing in, and do so when the timing is right for you. Even after the fact, when you sold and made a huge profit, it is difficult to know if your "Buy" analysis was correct. It is likely that when you "bought in cheap" the market knew some "potential Bad news" that you did not consider - or so the argument goes.

I really don't understand the price decline that we have witnessed in the last couple of weeks. But I'm still buying, and plan on holding until a deal is done. I have a very long time horizon, and we are cheaper now than my cost base.

- I don't understand why the PP was priced so cheaply aftertax

- I don't understand why indicators like insider buying haven't helped

- I don't understand why further interest in the ROF (KWG, SPQ) hasn't helped NOT

- There is a lot of value that is "indicated and inferred" and lots of potential

- My valuation is quite attractive at these prices

I'd also like to point out that I remember FWR "going silent - no news, no nothing" then "took a dive - maybe 50% can't remember exact %" shortly before the takeover was announced - I couldn't figure that one out either.