Slapshot - for discussion...

I am making the assumption that it will be mined (as long as the costs are low enough) - people like profit - so this seems fair.

I am not making any other assumptions, I am looking to the market to see what the concensus is, and I'm using its best estimate:

Specifically to address: How do you know what the time period is to production?"

You don't need to know it to value the mine: (by example)

The futures market price at time 1 must be the time 0 price + the 1 year risk free interest rate - otherwise arbitrage is possible. Since you can lock in a time 1 cashflow, the time 0 present value of it is the time 1 price discounted at the risk free rate = the time 0 price.

AND

The futures market price at time 2 must be the time 0 price + the 2 year risk free interest rate - otherwise arbitrage is possible. Since you can lock in a time 2 cashflow, the time 0 present value of it is the time 2 price discounted at the risk free rate = the time 0 price.

Since you can do this for all time periods - - - - you get the time 0 price (as the risk adjusted discounted PV) for all time periods.

1. Since nickel does not produce dividends or income: the current price of nickel must be the risk-adjusted discounted future price of nickel.

2. Since you already know the risk-adjusted discounted future price of nickel, why would you discount it more?

3. You are buying a big load of nickel and a bunch of costs of mining it. If you consider those items separately - it is obvious that the price you pay today for the nickel portion should be today's market price of nickel (minus a bit for liquidity premium)