Noront & KWG
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 03, 2013 07:59AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
I have vested interests in both Noront & KWG. I presume many here do. I have been following the discussion about the pros and cons of each here with some interest. Always good to see healthy discussion.
In summary, I think I agree with many points on both sides. Noront is more of a sure thing. Noront is more "boring" because there is less likelihood of surprises. However, Noront is more likely to just keep plodding along and have a mine under construction in a couple more years. At this point, investing more in Noront is a no-brainer.
KWG is certainly riskier. Is there a chance that the easement decision will go against them? Yes, I hate to admit it, but it's possible. However, if you're OK with a long time frame for your investments, probably several years, KWG will probably eventually pay off better returns than Noront. The problem is that it might take much longer. KWG is not as "boring" as Noront. The potential for news with KWG is much higher that someone big could happen and ratchet the SP upwards quickly. But the potential also exists that Black Horse results are only average, or that the easement is not favorable.
If the easement is not favorable, I presume that it would be challenged in court. Therein lies the advantage. Frank can afford to tie up the easement ruling in the courts for a couple years. While that would not be good for the current stock price, it would only allow KWG to strengthen its position in terms of getting additional drilling results. Cliffs, on the other hand, cannot afford delays. If the easement goes in Cliffs favor and KWG is able to obtain an injunction against development by fighting the decision in the courts, Cliffs still loses.
I still haven't decided, between KWG and Noront, which of the two I think is "better." While the risks of KWG are multiples compared to the risks of Noront, so are the potential returns if certain things fall into place. I sometimes think about what would happen if the two companies combined forces. I don't often think about that, because I don't see it as being likely.
With respect to Djje's comments about people dumping KWG shares lately, I don't believe that is an accurate analysis. It is probable that one entity may have decided to get out (see the volumes for March 18th) but I don't believe that would be related to the easement decision or to drilling results. Here's a quick list of KWG volumes since February 15th, the day after the easement. It shows that the average volume for KWG since then has been around 581,619 shares per day. At a price of around 5 cents, that's about $29,080 per day in total volume, or about enough to buy a mid-sized car. That's a pittance. Total cumulative volume for that entire period was about 18.03m shares, or $900,000. KWG had bigger one-day trading volumes a year or so ago, when things were exciting. To put those numbers in perspective, think of the "big day" that Cliffs had on March 27th, when over 51m shares traded at between $18 and $19. In other words, the dollar volume for Cliffs that day was maybe around $950 million, in one day. Compared to just under a million dollars for KWG for a month and half of trading.
That really puts that David vs. Goliath comparison into perspective.
15-Feb | 12,600 |
19-Feb | 198,500 |
20-Feb | 173,700 |
21-Feb | 84,300 |
22-Feb | 797,200 |
25-Feb | 647,500 |
26-Feb | 114,000 |
27-Feb | 241,700 |
28-Feb | 207,000 |
01-Mar | 831,700 |
04-Mar | 102,400 |
05-Mar | 2,230,700 |
06-Mar | 503,000 |
07-Mar | 441,700 |
08-Mar | 497,900 |
09-Mar | 643,400 |
12-Mar | 219,200 |
13-Mar | 452,200 |
14-Mar | 161,400 |
15-Mar | 499,100 |
18-Mar | 4,819,700 |
29-Mar | 152,200 |
20-Mar | 460,200 |
21-Mar | 261,500 |
22-Mar | 183,200 |
25-Mar | 70,200 |
26-Mar | 1,792,500 |
27-Mar | 415,700 |
28-Mar | 23,900 |
01-Apr | 185,300 |
02-Apr | 606,600 |
Total | 18,030,200 |
avg: | 581,619 |
avg @ 5cents | $29,080.97 |
TOTAL $$ | $901,510.00 |
By comparison: | |
Cliffs March 27th: | |
51million shares traded at around $18-19 | |
$943,500,000 |