Re: NOT and KWG reaction to cliffs
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 04, 2014 11:46AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
EdG,
Comments on your 2 points:
1. CLF Proposed Road: It was proposed as a private road for CLF monster trucks to transport BT ore to the south. No public access. CLF would be willing to put in $0.6B with a matching $0.6B from the Ontario government, for a total of $1.2B. Rumour says that the former Premier of Ont. was in favour of this arrangement. But now, it does not look like CLF would be in any position to provide financing of the mine which was estimated at $3.2B (including the 0.6B for the road contribution, 0.8B for an onsite upgrader and 1.8B smelter, all big ticket items compared to some $350M cash on hand and the current MktCap of $1.26B). There is no way CLF can pull this off, hence it has stopped the BT project and would be prepared to sell the RoF assets. So the private road idea is dead.
On the other hand, KWG would be willing to "donate" its claimed corridor to an entity, e.g. the Port Authority which would include various key players (ONTC/train, FN, Govts, other miners such as NOT, including of course KWG, etc) in exchnage for some priviledge. But the corridor (RR, plus a small service road?) would be available for everybody, including the FNs, the public, etc. There may be some user fees, but that would be determines by the Fed Port Authority. Bill Gates may want to participate in this, but he does not do that for charity. It will have to give him some reasonable long-term ROI, he's a long-term fellow, just like his buddy Warren B who told him to invest in RR.
It should be noted that the transportation corridor was staked by KWG which has spent quite a bit of money on it, hence it should be looked at as some good asset for KWG.
2. NOT vs KWG: One could get "nervous" looking at the OS, KWG has 777M shares, but NOT has 231M shares. So KWG OS is 3 times of NOT's. But, the number of shares is not really relevant. If Mrkt Cap is compared then NOT: $90M compared to ~$40M for KWG (assuming $0.05/s). KWG Cap is highly dependent on the SP which could vary significantly, e.g. manipulation (Cap =$48M for 0.06), = $80M for 0.10). The share price is a reflection of the Market perception for a company. For KWG, the Market does not take into account a whole host of things (discussion on this would deserve a long post), not even the chromite asset in the RoF (this alone could be worth ~$100M, even if a fire-sale price is assumed it would be of the order ~$50M, and this alone would add quite a bit to KWG Cap).
I am not pitching KWG against NOT (I own both), but company evaluation is a strange beast and surely cannot be based on the OS alone.
Just some food for thought. Of course, to each person his/her own.
Parting shot for both NOT and KWG consider (leaving CL out of this): Like CLF VP Bill Boor said (recently) "working together" is a good thing (sounds like Martha S?).
goldhunter