MD, good explanation and good examples.

The only wrinkle in your future prediction is the timing and what happens in between. No way of knowing when Wyloo might execute a force buy, and hence what may transpire between now and then. Despite what we think it is worth, Wyloo/NOT/Twiggy still have quite a few hurdles to clear to solidify further increase in the SP. 

What we need is some concrete progress on the road and some real agreement among the FN's. More political announcements in January won't be enough - look how the SP has languished (until now) since Winnie first "committed" $1B for the road.

As it stands we have 3 months in which the SP should be stable - so 3 months to learn the details of Wyloo's offer, and 3 months for Twiggy to demonstrate how the future will unfold (e.g. to sell us his vision for the ROF). 

Cheers,

Hobbit