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Message: Market Perception

Market Perception

posted on Feb 04, 2010 08:28PM

Excluding the broad based decline today, I would like to share my thoughts on the market perception of KXL and would like to get others thoughts on the matter. One of the challenges we have as retail investors is understanding the movements of the SP and insuring ourselves that we do not make a sell decision based on fear, rumours or other conjectures.

I too have been puzzled with the SP and have tried to articulate the underlying causes for the SP.

The market is obviously very cautious with KXL. Probable cause and I think most likely cause is that the investment community has been 'burned' twice with the run up of the SP with Cariboo and the Golden Mile discovery. Each of these events resulted in a abrupt appreciaton of the SP followed by a steady decline.

As you may recall, the discovery of the Golden Mile was suppose to be or could have been one of the greatest discoveries in North Amercia, and at that time, Bill C. was at the helm and did a good 'selling job' and convinced many investors to the point that a PP was issued at $3.80. Reality has set in and the drilling results have not correlated to the fact that the Golden Mile could be NA's largest discovery. This is not to say that there is no gold on the contrare there is but not as big ( yet). This should not be a show stopper or issue if the strategy was laid out differently back then but there was significant hype back then and we all have paid a financial price and KXL has paid a credibility price. I beleive, the market is factoring in a low expectations for the 43-101, maybe in the range of 350,000 ounces maybe 400,000 ounces and have accepted the fact the Golden Mile is not going to be the significant mine that was promoted at the time of discovery nor should it be the 'flag bearer'.

Although the pipeline is deep, targets are plentiful, valuations are based on execution of the strategy, drill results that build gold ounces in the ground.

You could argue that the KXL SP today is undervalued given all of the attributes i.e. land package, pipeline activity, board, etc but you could also argue that is fairly valued based on the quantitative metric of actual gold ounces in the ground.

No question in my mind that KXL has favorble attributes, team, land package,board etc, but unless KXL demonstrates the value of the B-G area then the SP will be range bound between where we are today and lets say $.65 and will require our collective support and patience that I know for most of us has been tested several times.

Brian has done a good job of explaining the new strategy as reflected in his presentations and it is clear to me that the Golden Mile should be viewed as one of many 'feeder' veins in the B-G area to a common mill but it is not the main attraction. I beleive this is the message or my intrepretions of Brian's corporate presentations and news releases.

KXL has been trading sub $1 for some time and i think about it as a coiled spring ready to pop, the question is which NR or series of NR will be the catalyst to catapult the SP higher?. SP could jump if the market takes the limelight and focus away from the Golden Mile and looks at the activity in concert at Milestone, Brenbar, WG, Minespoint, Sturgen Falls,. Anyone one of these has the potential to be larger than the Golden Mile and on top of this we have the uranium play. Nothing wrong with 10 feeder veins each with bout 500,000 ounces, this still gives you about 5 million ounces and all in the same area.

KXL needs a new 'flag bearer' or rather a series to replace Golden Mile. I understand the frustrations everyone is feeling with their investments but I would like to give Brian and Darren the opportunity to execute the strategy and if the are able to execute the strategy and once the concept is embraced that KXL is not just about the Golden Mile then and only then will the SP appreciate in an upward and sustainable trend.

These are my thoughts would like to get a flavour for others.

Regards

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Feb 04, 2010 09:36PM
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