Re: For Brym and others...
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Welcome To The Questerre Energy HUB On AGORACOM
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Message: Re: For Brym and others...
| Quebec Lowlands Economics | |||||||||||
| Questerre NPV model shown in Corporate Presentations | |||||||||||
| First Production (year) | 2011 | ||||||||||
| First year average rate (cf/d) | 2,975,000 | Initial 30 Day Rate (mcf/e) | 5,000,000 | ||||||||
| Reserves (cf) | n/a | First year decline | 0.81 | ||||||||
| Operating costs (mcf) | 1.00 | ||||||||||
| Royalty Rate | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.10 | ||||||||
| Tax Rate | 0.35 | ||||||||||
| Price per mcf | (3.55 + 0.5) -> 4.05(US) -> 4.05 (CDN) | 4.05 | |||||||||
| Capital Cost of one well plus pipeline costs) | 10,000,000 | ||||||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |||
| First year average rate (cf/d) | 2,975,000 | 1,770,125 | 1,053,224 | 626,669 | 372,868 | 221,856 | 132,005 | 78,543 | 46,733 | ||
| Gas Revenue | 4,397,794 | 2,616,687 | 1,556,929 | 926,373 | 551,192 | 327,959 | 195,136 | 116,106 | 69,083 | ||
| Operating Costs | 1,085,875 | 646,096 | 384,427 | 228,734 | 136,097 | 80,978 | 48,182 | 28,668 | 17,058 | ||
| Royalty | 439,779 | 261,669 | 155,693 | 92,637 | 55,119 | 32,796 | 19,514 | 11,611 | 6,908 | ||
| Income Before Tax | 2,872,139 | 1,708,923 | 1,016,809 | 605,001 | 359,976 | 214,186 | 127,440 | 75,827 | 45,117 | ||
| Income Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Cash Flow | 2,872,139 | 1,708,923 | 1,016,809 | 605,001 | 359,976 | 214,186 | 127,440 | 75,827 | 45,117 | ||
| NPV(10) after tax | -2,215,332 | ||||||||||
| NPV(10) is the net value of the gas flows after Income Tax (minus the cost of the well) | |||||||||||
| The first average rate (cf/d) is calculated (5,000,000 (initial 30 Day Rate) + 950,000 (end rate) / 2 = 2,975,000 | |||||||||||
| No IRR was calculated since NPV is negative. | |||||||||||
| NPV is negative which means well should not be drilled until gas prices increase and the capital cost of each well decreases. | |||||||||||
| I believe that Forest Oil decreased their capital cost in a Canadian project from 10 million to about 4 milllion | |||||||||||
| after 10 wells. | |||||||||||
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