Re: The waiting game.....Or a marathon
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 17, 2019 09:43PM
I feel like we're at the end of a marathon, someone says to us "just 2 more kilometres to go", then after running another 2 km we're told "okay, just another 1.5 km left".
We're told BETonMACE was at about 200 events at the AGM, but we don't know exactly what date that number of "as of". We were also told that they were seeeing 10-15 events per months, but again....we don't know specifics. 10 - 15 events as of when?
What if in the last 3 or 4 months the event rate has slowed? Just keeping the numbers simple I'll say we have 1,200 placebo patients and 1,200 Apabetalone patients. Then putting on rose colored glasses I'll say (hoping) that what if of the 200 events, that 150 are placebo and 50 are dosed. I'll go even further and think maybe most of the dosed patients had their events early on, shortly after first taking 208.
But going with an optimistic event scenario of 150 events placebo and only 50 events dosed...that takes the patients in the placebo arm down to 1,050 with the dosed arm at 1,150...And then if Apabetalone is as effective as many of are thinking/hoping it could be....maybe dang near all the events are taking place in the placebo arm at this stage...a placebo arm that has fewer and fewer patients in it.
What if the event rate has slowed to just 7 per month since that 200 number? That would mean another 7+ months to hit 250.
All this is obviously pure speculative spit balling with little basis in fact...and even the fact of 200 events is a bit fuzzy without a specific date to go off of. But obviously I would love this specualtion to be close to actual results...but even if it is, that poses another problem, the lack of financing at this stage.
Resverlogix is close to broke by my reckoning at this point. I was just talking to my best friend on the phone and I've told him all about RVX (he doesn't invest at all) and I remarked about the $5 million convenant with Third Eye....I told him the company has to be darn close to that number by now...that their cash position could be down to $5 million and $10 by now.....
This is just a stream of conciousness post now....so I'll keep going. I had lunch today with the Pastor from my church, and while I didn't talk to him about Resverlogix at all I did remark that while I was in Cuba, that I got an old sensation coming over me....something that hasn't happend for a long long time, over 20 years its been since I've felt this sensation.
It happened to me when I was walking over a foot bridge in Cuba at the resort....its hard to describe, like déja vu or a sixth sense kind of thing. Its the feeling that something good is about to happen in my life, something significant...I just don't know what. Years ago it was very reliable...when its happened before its been followed by a job offer, a promotion, by financial windfalls....always something good.
Resverlogix has to give us news soon, of that I am certain....news of financing, or of an inability to arrange financing. The piddly volumes suggest to me that pretty much everyone is sitting back and waiting....
Sorry for the rambling post....just giving ammunition to the enemy probably but it is what it is, the thoughts that are going through my mind. I might just have to grab another 500 shares, I agree that my buying warrants Tues/Wed was not the best choice, shares would be better at these price levels