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San Gold Corporation - one of Canada's most exciting new exploration companies and gold producers.

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Message: Re: to the West...
3
Nov 05, 2008 08:03AM

E, as outlined, revenues will soon exceed expectations, demand for SAN stock will subsequently exceed supply, resulting in "exuberance" followed by "irrational exuberance" (with ever higher stock prices!) driven by higher gold prices! (over time which is impossible to predict in exact terms!)

At which time put your head between your knees and kiss this stock goodbye! (at least high % of our holdings!)

And all required for we peasant investors is to sit on our hands and let it happen!

RUF

PS: the following are some coments from the Gold Report.

As difficult as it may be for precious metals investors to sit on their hands, that may be the best “action” for surviving this hazardous transition from deflationary to inflationary times. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Gold Newsletter Editor Brien Lundin explains why it is absolutely inevitable that inflation will trigger a rise in gold and hints that a December “surprise” could end the waiting game. His advice is to let this round of deleveraging and deflation end before making any serious plays.

The Gold Report: Gold and the Dow are both going down. Shouldn’t they be decoupling and if they do, what would it take to make that happen?

Brien Lundin: There’s a fancy word out there – deleveraging – that’s being bandied about almost as much as the word depression. All the pundits and the analysts are talking about deleveraging. What that really means is that market participants are selling hand over fist because they have to. The prices we’re seeing for assets now, whether it’s stocks, commodities, or gold, do not reflect the underlying value of those assets. People are selling them simply because they have to—whether because of margin calls or redemptions from hedge funds or what have you, the assets have to be sold. That’s why anything with a bid, anything that can be sold in volume is being sold. Underlying trends have nothing to do with it.

I do think we’ll see stocks and gold decoupling. We’ll see all of these asset classes start to establish their own trends based on economic fundamentals, once some stability returns to the market. First we have to get past these great down drafts driven by the need for liquidity.

TGR: When do you see that happening?

BL: That’s a difficult call. Some predict the bailout plan will have an impact soon—over the coming few weeks. I think that enough damage has been done to last for the rest of this year. Simply having gotten through October will bring a big psychological boost. It was such a hazardous month and had earned such a well-deserved reputation for being treacherous for equity investors.

At this point, everyone who doesn’t have to sell, who isn’t on margin, or doesn’t need the liquidity, should just sit back, keep their heads low and wait until the New Year.

TGR: But when do you expect some stability?

BL: It’s hard to say how much more selling will occur. A lot of money has certainly flown out of the commodities sector and the stock market. We’ve lost $3 trillion in wealth in the stock market alone since the bailout. And yet, while there’s already been a tremendous amount of selling, there is still some money on the sidelines. It’s just impossible to predict when stable markets, much less an uptrend, will come.

TGR: What do you think of the fact that the value of the U.S. dollar has increased against most other currencies? What’s causing that given all this financial turmoil?

BL: A couple of things. First off, assets are being sold to raise dollars to meet margin calls and redemptions. Until the margin clerks and fund investors start accepting gold in payment, then we’re not going to see gold rising in such an environment.

Secondly, the dollar has been in a bit of a short squeeze. A number of European banks have had to buy dollars to fund redemptions from clients with accounts based in U.S. dollars. The pressure resulting from redemptions and withdrawals forced them to buy dollars at virtually any cost to redeem these calls. That short squeeze has elevated the relative value of the dollar over the near term. This situation won’t last. But typically, when a rebound from a short squeeze occurs, there will be a dramatic move in the opposite direction.

TGR: By dramatic, do you mean fast?

BL: A lower dollar, a weaker dollar. And yes, in fairly quick fashion.

TGR: A weaker dollar would push up the value of physical gold.

BL: Absolutely. And over the longer term, that will happen eventually. Trillions of dollars of are being created to bail out financial institutions and local economies. This will have a dramatic effect on inflation. But for now, this deleveraging process is highly deflationary. We’re getting a stronger dollar and relatively lower values for anything the dollar will buy. But ultimately, all these newly created dollars and all of this new fiat currency worldwide will result in much higher inflation.

TGR: You are predicting we are headed for an inflationary environment?

BL: Oh, absolutely. Even if the currency that has been created or promised thus far proves insufficient to engender an inflationary environment, the financial authorities will create whatever amount it takes to bring about inflation. That’s only way to stop deflation. They cannot transition gradually from a deflationary environment to one with low inflation. The pendulum will have to swing hard in the other direction.

TGR: Will the pendulum swinging bring the end of deleveraging? You said earlier that as the deleveraging process completes itself, that the asset classes will now reestablish themselves on their own merits.

BL: Yes.

TGR: Once this deleveraging ends, inflation begins?

BL: Yes, but once we pass through a difficult transition period from a deflationary environment into an inflationary one. We’re probably living through it right now. There’s no telling when the pendulum has reached bottom, and when it’s going to start swinging the other way. Every time we think we’ve hit a bottom in the stock market, we test a new one. Every time we think the last shoe has dropped, another one falls. This uncertainty and fear of what lies ahead really bothers the market.

For so long we didn’t realize that the market was barreling along with blindfolds on. Suddenly these obstacles are hitting us with great force and we don’t know what or where the next stumbling block will be. And that’s scary.

TGR: But in that uncertainty lies opportunity.

BL: Absolutely, but it takes more than insight to see opportunity. It also takes guts to act on it. We all recognize that this is opportunity, but it’s the proverbial falling knife syndrome. When do you step in? I’ve pecked away at a few irresistible bargains myself and in some cases those irresistible bargains are now trading for half of what I paid for them.

So it’s hard to find the bottom, but there is value here. I’m advising my readers not to over-extend themselves. Wait for a trend to establish itself, give up some of these early gains before you jump in wholeheartedly. With that said, it’s not a bad time to peck away at some bargains here and there.

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