Re: House Positions - forhorn
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 13, 2010 11:27AM
First Explorer at the "Ring of Fire" and presently drilling on the "BIG DADDY" Chromite/Pge's jv'd property...yet we were robbed
Very good post, Snug. And, like yourself, I have been a long time follower of Spider and NN.
The activity over the last week or so does indicate that we are going to be in play along with KWG. The fact that they are trailing each other so closely indicates that it is CLF that will do the biddding. This brings up several points that should be considered while we await the actual offer.
This is going to be considerably different from the FWR situation, in that we won't have a competing bidder to drive up the offer. Or will we?
Everyone was so confident in the integrity of management with FWR and that they would protect retail, yet in the end they went with what put the most cash in their own pockets. Will it be any different here?
I feel the intent will be to do a deal before the end of the month as that is when control of the area shifts over to KWG. Would that be good or bad for the eventual share price?
Who is buying up the shares over the last few days? is it someone accumulating for the eventual buyer, or just buyers hoping for the pop? This is important for us, as it will determine the actual offering price.
On average in the last while, any offer will usually be higher than the average selling price over last few days. If an offer came out Monday morning and had a premium of 35%, it would be for .14. If we continue for the next week as we have, the SP will be at .20, and a 35% premium would be .28. This would indicate that the longer it takes for the actual offer, the better for us. However, what if this is all just market hype, and there is no offer coming. The longer this drags out could indicate a lesser chance of success for us.
When the actual offer comes, how will we react? Will we organize a resistance as we have done in the past, or simply accept it? An average 300% gain was enough to win the day with FWR. An average 300% gain here would likely come around the .25-30 cent range.
The above questions are just some of what must run thru everyone's mind as we await Monday's opening.
MY guess is they will allow 3 more days to gather in as many share as are available, and then make the offer. I have previously stated that it would not exceed 15 cents, and it appears I am wrong, or at least I hope I am.
Best regards
K