Ryan,

This may seem dumb to some people, but here's how I look at a chart. I think of a cut away view of North America with the Pacific ocean on the left, followed by the foothills of the Rockies, the mountains themselves, then the leeward side, finally the prairies. Ideally, you want to buy at the foothills, and sell near the top of the mountain. You can also consider buying after the prairies give way to higher ground. You want to avoid buying at the top of the mountain or on the leeward side.

Of course you can't always know where you are on the continent in real time, but you can often make a pretty good guess. Basically, avoid buying after a large run up - it may go further, but the higher up the mountain, the greater the risk of reaching the summit. Also, once you're on the leeward side, the trend is down, so the odds go against you. After several months of basing on the prairies, I will consider a stock that is starting to show signs of life, especially if the prairies are elevated (higher than the Pacific).

Obviously, not all stocks follow this pattern, but quite a few do - especially the small speculative ones. Take a look at your past trades, and think of where on the continent you bought them. For example, EC was clearly on the leeward side. EVG is also on the leeward side, possibly near the prairies, but still too early to buy IMO - takes time to get through the prairies.

Hope this helps.